Friday, March 8, 2013

Market Update

Junk Credit is now moving and has been out of sync with the SPX around the same time the SPX was out of sync with the Yen (remember I said the Yen would be the pivotal asset this week), the very liquid  High Yield Corp. trades a lot like Junk credit, it too has been out of sync, but to a lesser degree (as you may recall the performance of credit earlier today was something I didn't like and have been watching closely).

Here's what several key market charts look like (at least as of their capture)...

 Junk Credit vs the SPX (green) has fallen out and gone negative on the day, this at the same time the Yen/SPX/Market correlation was wrong as I posted earlier.

 HY Corp. Credit isn't as bad, but it didn't follow the SPX higher either.

 Here's the Yen again this morning since hitting a bottom at 8:30 a.m. EDT, the white arrows are the proper correlation, the red box is the market moving out of step with the Yen, it seems now the market is starting to respond to some increased strength in the Yen.

 The $USD is also higher on the day (also puts negative pressure on the market and most risk assets including commodities). The correlation between the SPX (green) and the $USD is also off with the SPX performing better than the correlation suggests, at least until a few minutes ago, the Euro is nearly the exact opposite of the $USD so it may be easier to see there as the Euro and SPX should move roughly together as the Euro makes up 50% of the $US Dollar Index.

 Note the SPX moving up and out of correlation with the Euro, as the charts were captured the market started moving back toward the correlation.

 Commodities vs the SPX have been much more sanguine and respecting of the $USD's strength today.

The averages
 As mentioned the DIA has a pretty sharp negative divergence that the DIA is just starting to respond to here.

 That's stronger on the 2 min chart

 Other than the open, the IWM was mushy in it signals until just a few minutes ago as it got more extreme.

 The Q's went negative earlier just before they dropped and are starting to lead negative here

 The QQQ 2 min chart showing several apparent head fake moves

And the SPY has been moving with the SPY, except on the open when it was very deeply negative.

I think the momentum in the market will have a LOT to do with the movement of the Yen which you can track with FXY.

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