Thursday, March 14, 2013

ICI's Flow of Funds

Again, addressing the "Great Rotation" from bonds to stocks, it is more appropriately named, "The Great Myth of Rotation: Stocks are losing money.

From ICI's Flow of Funds...
 Supposedly money has been flowing in since the start of 2013, I have the start of 2013 highlighted above, the first one showing a big decline is the week ending 1/2/2013 so it's not indicative of "New Year" funds, however ever since the start of money coming in to domestic equity funds, it's been steadily fading, the last 2 weeks have been negative. A lot of the money that came in was not from bonds, in fact bond funds have seen larger inflows for the year than equity funds, a good portion of money rotating in to stocks was from Money Market Funds.

As for the Dow...
 The last 2 weeks of outflows certainly show up in the Dow during the month of March.

This isn't comprehensive analysis of Bond funds, but just take a look at the volume trend in TLT, the flight to safety trade vs the Dow.
TLT is seeing large volume and since February it has been in a range, a range I showed you in last night's post that has been characterized by accumulation through March.

 30 min TLT positive divergence keeps migrating to longer charts.

The rate of change (white) in TLT (green) vs the Dow-30 (red) has gone from declining to tapering off, if the Dow's move is so strong and there's a rotation out of bonds, why hasn't TLT's rate of change remained negative?

No comments: