Thursday, March 14, 2013

IWM Updated Charts

The fill on the IWM April 20 $94 puts was $1.98

I wanted to add to the March Weekly position as it looks like the IWM will move enough to influence price there, but looking at it objectively, it's just dollar cost averaging. If there were no position in place, I'd opt for the longer expiration as I have been doing with the most recent options positions; this is based on the observation last Monday that from the looks of the charts, Volatility/amplitude and duration look set to pick up. As I explained in a follow up post, this is not something that I feel will be noticeable on a daily chart, but more on a continuous basis and one way to get more of a continuos feel to the charts is by using multi-day charts.

 IWM intraday 1 min-Earlier I posted what looked like initial weakness at 12:27, but it wasn't showing up on the intraday futures yet; at the time of that post the IWM was at $94.47, it added 3 cents from there and is now at $94.42 so the initial charts were showing deterioration, it just hadn't gained enough momentum.


 The 2 min

 The longer 2 min trend

 3 min

 5 min

 Jumping to the longer term trend, there's already been significant weakness in the IWM (and market) which has been visible in volume, 3C, and especially market breadth as more stocks continue to fall below their moving averages or even 2 standard deviation below their moving averages as shown last week, this week and last night.

 This is the 1 min intraday  R2K Futures, they have been in line since my post last night, they are just going negative here, in fact since this screen capture, the chart has deteriorated more.

 5 min futures are leading negative in to a parabolic price move, I never trust parabolic moves as they tend to end the same way they started, except with a parabolic completion to the downside.

 15 min futures, the dashed line is the June contract, however I have found the 3C signals to work from one contract to another.

60 min Russell 2000 futures and a leading negative divergence, most of it since the June contract started trading.

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