Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Quick Market Update

The Yen's intraday negative divergence took hold a bit, the $USD is still struggling to hang on and so is the yen to some extent, but the correlation remains incredibly intact.

Yen (green) vs the SPX intraday.

Credit, which is one of the best leading indicators is getting slaughtered today, however HYG does have a positive divergence in place that should be enough to help an afternoon ramp or perhaps it continues to build for a bit longer or even do both with a pullback after a ramp.

VXX has a decent intraday negative divegrence-again a lever that helps the market move up when it moves down, but this is intraday only. I continue to hold VXX / UVXY long positions open.

TLT has been in line with its move down intraday which helps the market as a lever, but beyond that it is being accumulated as a flight to safety trade.

As for the averages, these are REALLY weak intraday divergences, so again the margin is razor thin.

I even had to look at some of the leveraged versions of the averages as they often move first in a situation like this (move first in 3C accumulation), the reason is the same reason we use leverage for these short choppy moves, it's not worth putting money in the market for such a small return without leverage. That's a good tip for 3C users, but think about the situation we are in, nothing is a blanket statement.

IWM
 As you can see, even on the fastest, least important 1 min intraday chart the IWM STILL has the weakest positive divergence possible, a relative one.


 I have been watching the 3X leveraged IWM longs, like URTY above to see what's really going on, accumulation nearly all day, but only in the 1 min tiumeframe. This almost suggests a move a little longer than just today, but that depends on how much volatility is in the move.

 QQQ 1 min intraday, again VERY weak, that's how much trouble this market is in.

 Again I went to the leveraged long versions like WLD and TQQQ above to see what was going on, an intraday positive almost all day, but nothing beyond 1 min intraday.

The SPY has shown the best divergence on its own, the 1 min leading positive.

This should tell you, I'd be taking long profits ASAP and not trying to get fancy and overtrade this market.

I'd also wait for any decent price strength to add to shorts and if we get enough, then maybe buy some puts.

The short side positions are the ones that I really want to concentrate on filling out, but if there's a ride to the upside with some money, I'll take it, but not much beyond this-it's too risky.


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