Market / AAPL Update

Why both, because I think near term (today), they are inseparable. The Q's have a pretty decent gap and if there's one thing that has defined the era of HFT trade, it is that no gap is left unfilled which is a shame because break-away and exhaustion gaps were so reliable and gap resistance/support was the best you'd find.

I mentioned yesterday or the night before actually that the Q's would need AAPL, I don't know anything about a leak in AAPL earnings and I still think the bullish action that was in AAPL was counter trend rally based as a leak in earnings (unless it was a product that no one knew about), wouldn't explain the AAPL base forming over a quarter ago (earnings out of the question).

As you know, based on the AAPL 1 min chart yesterday I opened a VERY speculative AAPL Weekly (July 26) $425 call, I "might" add to that today "if" things move in the right direction, but it wouldn't be uncommon to run AAPL up right before earnings leak or not.

Remember the earlier 1 min positives I called out this morning in averages and Index futures?

 SPY 1 min positive has grown since then, remember the price formation since the positive divergence started...

SPY 2 min is more or less in line which is an improvement from the earlier negative, but not positive yet. Still with a 1 min positive only the chances (intraday )
 are 50/50 between a price consolidation through time and a pullback, add the 2 min chart and through price becomes the highest probability (in this case that would mean an SPY intraday bounce, which would be fine as long as HYG keeps seeing worse and worse negative divergences, it would actually be the most common scenario.

 Now look at the 2 min QQQ leading positive, interesting huh?

The IWM is along for the ride, but not really leading anything.

The reason I asked you to remember the SPY price formation since the positive divergence is because it "looks" like a small "W" base might form, that would make way for a stronger intraday move than just a positive at a reversal point as we already have.

 AAPL's 1 min leading positive was so sharp yesterday I took a chance on those weekly calls. Today it's even sharper.


Also popping up is an AAPL 5 min leading positive divergence, on this alone I think yesterday's position at speculative size (about half of even the smaller size option positions) is warranted and if there's a "W" with a continuing positive, I may add, this VERY WELL could be a day trade though so keep Reg. T in mind if you are thinking about it and aren't compliant.

As far as the bigger picture in AAPL, nothing has changed- 30 min.

AAPL may very well be the market's pivot point today or asset that all the action is based on.