Is Obama Looking for a Way Out?

The President just said in a Saturday (2 p.m. EDT) televised speech that he's made the decision to strike Syria, but he will (like the failed vote in UK parliament), ask US Congress to vote on authorization of "Use of Force" before sending any order to initiate a strike.

As we know Congress is quite splintered and this may be a tough vote, but more interestingly, Congress is not due back for at least 10-days so it seems unless they return early (which there was no indication of), this sets off any potential action for nearly another two weeks. While the President says he doesn't care (essentially) what the UN finds, he sure is giving them a lot of time to make their findings known. Very few Presidents have sought congressionally authority for strikes MUCH LARGER in scope than this one, it seems odd after the US key ally, Great Britain failed to stand with the US for the first time in hundreds of years.

My initial gut feeling is that Obama backed himself in to a corner almost a year ago when he said the use of chemical weapons was a red line that can't be crossed, now that it appears it has been crossed, no US allies including NATO are willing to stand with the US and he seems to be having "Sentiment remorse".

I would think the market will initially take this news very well as any potential action seems to have been put off almost two weeks, it was only when "imminent action" seemed inevitable that the market reacted badly, after that when each day the use of force was walked back a little further, the market's sentiment seemed to improve, this may be exactly what is needed to get a nice bounce/rally underway.

However the market still hates uncertainty and while the President said he's ask for a vote in Congress, he did not say he'd abide by one, he said he "Already made the decision to strike" first and foremost in the press conference, so in the weeks ahead or an early return of Congress, the market may again get jittery about "Uncertainty", for now though, other than perhaps an initial knee-jerk, I think this gives the market the green light to rally.

Today's P/L

We didn't have any expiring options today so the only P/L's are from positions moved around today, I think there will be many more great set ups when the market opens in the U.S. on Tuesday next week, but I don't think we have much more time than that.

As you know, for a Friday, today was extremely busy. When I was looking at text alerts for trades for the new site the best company I could find offered so many texts as a maximum amount per month, you can't go over that, with our membership and the trades closed and opened today alone, I would have gone through 54% of the monthly allotment today only.

I moved around quite a few positions today, I'll show you why, part of it is I think there's potential for a large enough base that it's worth trading around to free up dry powder for other positions while cutting assets facing draw-down, almost all of these I plan on re-establishing, but in certain cases it just made sense not to have drawdown when those assets could be used in a position that can advance with the market, others I simply won't let go of (Core shorts) because of personal rules and because I won't get another entry like the original one.

These may not be in order, but close...

SLV Sept. $24 Puts,  SLV $24 Puts were opened Tuesday of this week, about half was closed yesterday for a +30% gain.

At today's fill of $1.73 the remaining half's P/L came out to almost + 54%

DUST Long (Equity)

 I intended to hold DUSt for a longer period, but I figured I can trade around it and it's a good thing it was closed when it was as I was able to capture most of the day's momentum.  DUST which was opened Monday Aug. 26th (Congratulations for those of you who sat through the -8% gap down to finish the day up 13% Tuesday) came in at a $27.44 fill, the P/L is +27.5%

IYT Short (Equity), was intended as a longer term position, but you know how I feel about transports for the next week or two so it was closed today.

With a fill of $112.20, the P/L came out to a loss of about -5.5% (on the position) it would be about half a percent on portfolio.

IBM Core Short (equity)

IBM has been a Core Short position for a little bit, I didn't intend on closing it, but after looking at the charts today I thought the proceeds could be used in better ways, it's not enough just to have a trade that makes a gain, but look for the trade that will make the best gain (too many people get caught up in revenge trading, saying, "I lost the money in XYZ, I'm going to make it back in XYZ", while "ABC" may offer a better return).  At the $182.28 fill, IBM short came to a gain of approx. +9.25%

TLT is a special position as you know, I'm still looking for the right way to play it, but for now this is really dead money, I think it's GREAT for a longer term play without too much risk as long as you can keep a reasonable eye on it, it might be something I put some savings in.

At the $106.32 fill, the P/L was right around -.075%

TECS

Considering the positions entered at the end of the day, I couldn't have this in the Equity tracking portfolio so I removed it in favor of its cousin, the P/L came out to be about +4.25%


Remember, this is just today's closed positions, I think the best position this week was the Sept. $85 XOM Calls.


This is the current Equities Tracking Portfolio Rank for the Week and Month, I can't wait to see what it does with a real crack in the market.

I'll have some analysis for you over the weekend, maybe a few new indicators to test and hopefully the testing on the new website as well as sone odds and ends will be done and I'll start migrating you all over to the new site which has some really neat features I think you'll really enjoy and find helpful.

Market Dip Indications

It's always in the afternoon and rarely means much on Friday's with the weekly Options Expiration market pin, but as I noted in the last post, a decline in the market looked highly probable, maybe in to the close. Here's what gave it away for me and I mentioned it because I'd like to use the weakness to get a better price on XLK and TECL.

The VXX is an easy place to pick up on signals for the market as it moves opposite the market, one guess about why we seem to be getting a late day "Slay" could be with a long 3-day weekend, anyone with long exposure may be hedging that by buying VIX futures, when VIX rises, the market moves the opposite direction and falls, considering how late it is and the 3-day weekend as well as the positive signals all through the day earlier, it would seem reasonable that any longs picked up today are being hedged with VIX protection.

 The 1 min UVXY chart (2x leveraged VXX, often tracks VIX Futures better than VXX). The leading negative divergence is the main feature, but intraday you can see a positive move, if we zoom in to intraday really tight....

 This is what we get.

VXX's 2 min leading negative is the big feature of this chart, but again, if we zoom in tight intraday in late afternoon...

We get a small intraday positive.

The SPY 2 min has an intraday negative before it lost any ground.

Trade Ideas: Adding XLK Oct. $31 Calls & TECL (3x Long Technology) ETF

I don't expect anyone to take all of these positions even if you like them, I put out positions that I think look good at the time, you may have been looking to add some Technology exposure and this may make for a nice position as an option or stock trade, I personally don't like more than 6 positions at a time, I think I can diversify enough with 6. I just highlight interesting opportunities when they pop up.

I think we're going to get a pullback and I'd like to use that to enter an October XLK (Technology Sector) $31 Call to the "Options Tracking Portfolio" as well as a TECL (3x Bull Technology ETF) to the "Equities Tracking Portfolio". I think XLK is good for initial momentum, TECL will hold up better in any drawdown and it is a good choice for a swing move with 3x leverage.

I'll post the charts in just a moment.
 

Retail Sentiment

As noted earlier in this post, VIX is very popular with retail right now which is predictable, you want to know what they like? Just look for whatever has moved, they don't do the work and find them before they move, they chase them as I showed in this post with retail volume and institutional distribution at the day's highs.

Now we have an earlier email from before that post with Retail Sentiment, it was VERY specific to VIX ONLY, not the market as usual and this was before, I posted the article above.

"Twittertards are super bullish on the VIX:

"cup / handle mentioned earlier this week ...playing out . be careful . the vix wants a 20 handle"

"VIX bull pennant break out today $SPY still bear flagging"

Also in yesterday's market updates and last night's wrap specifically, what did I say about the market that the Twits are looking at?

From the Daily Wrap last night:

"Meanwhile the SPX and rest of the market seem to be in a bull flag which would be 100% appropriate for where we are in a "W" base according to Technical Analysis textbooks, the world doesn't usually work that way, but I wonder if they'd rather see retail buy down here and get head fakes higher than make them skittish?"

So far our "Sentiment" Leading Indicators are still bullish the market short term (as in a strong bounce).

 HIO vs the SPy

FCT  vs the SPY

 

Trade Idea: MCP is Looking better

I still have this feeling that MCP will see a head fake move below $5.95 where the stops would be stacked up.

I can't enter an option position without feeling very good about the timing, but MCP is a stock that could be a double on its own without any leverage so I am willing to start a partial long equity (stock) position, I figure about 1/3 of a normal size, which is a little big for a spec position, but I'll give the stop plenty of room which I'd have to do any way for a phased in position, the more room you give the stop, the fewer shares you can purchase.

AAPL Update

AAPL has been a stock that I wouldn't even consider as a bounce candidate long over the last week or so, I didn't want to look at it as a short either as the market has the most gravitational pull on any stock so a market bounce wouldn't be good for an AAPL short. I'm not saying I'd but AAPL here, I WOULDN'T, but today is the first day AAPL has showed me anything that is interesting and worth following on the upside. ***See comments at the end of the post

 AAPL 2 min went negative and fell and has been in line the entire time until today in which it is leading positive. When a stock skips a weaker relative positive divergence and moves straight to a stronger leading positive (which is not typical), something is going on in that asset, JUST LIKE VXX NEGATIVE YESTERDAY.

It looks like AAPL is trying to make up for lost time and catch up with the rest of the market which is VERY MUCH a stock pickers market, the day's of everything moves together as 1 correlated lump are over; this fact is what has kept me so busy and accounted for about 80% of my time today, looking for the right candidates.

 Now when a 3 min chart sees migration from a 2 min, that's a strong, healthy signal for the divergence, but when it too is leading positive, again it tells you something is going on there.

 And to make it to 5 min leading positive, this is what I call, "A CHART I DON'T IGNORE", although I don't see it as ready yet, it looks as if it will participate.

The 60 min is overall negative, but you can see hints of this positive in the 60 min chart.

Market Update : VIX

Since the last specific VIX update it went ahead shortly after positing and made a new intraday high, which is fine, head fake moves often come just before a reversal, but what happened as VXX/UVXY and VIX futures pushed to that new high (which retail has been crazy over VIX long) is VERY telling.

 VIX intraday futures went negative again at the new high.

VXX 2 min went leading negative intraday at that new high, you'll see why in a second or two

The intraday 1 min dug to a new leading negative low.

The 3 min made a new leading negative low

The 5 min was already in trouble, but look on an intraday basis...

You can see where retail chased higher prices, this gives smart money demand in which they can either sell in to or short in to, the 5 min chart seeing a leading negative intraday divergence on a new intraday high is bad news for the VXX and it moves opposite the market so VXX down, market up.

FSLR Calls or Long Equity

Yesterday I added FSLR Calls, except I split them between October $35 and OTM December $37. Yesterday I posted the charts for FSLR with VXX here. These are in addition to an existing (half size) September $38.

*I won't be adding today because of the exposure already in place, but if I didn't have that exposure, I'd have no problem starting or adding to a position EITHER LONG THE STOCK OR VIA CALLS.

Here are today's updated charts.

 1min yesterday went negative with the market and then afternoon accumulation, today shows a leadinf pos. in to a flat price range.

The 2 min leading with the right size reversal process for the move.

3 min leading positive so migration is evident which is healthy

 5 min leading positive, these are all the short term charts that needed to come in to line as I said a day or two ago in general.

 The important charts are like this 10 min leading positive or...

More importantly the size and position of this 30 min leading positive.

I think FSLR can stand on its own feet with or without the market.

Adding Back XOM Partial Profits Taken This Week Sept/Oct $85 Calls

I took partial profits (half) on XOM this week expecting a pullback , I ALWAYS intended to add the half position back after the pullback at better prices, I believe we are there or very close.

I'll leave the half Sept. $85 Call position in place, but rather than add back at September expiration, I'll be moving the replacement position to an October expiration, same $85 strike.

If you are interested in XOM as a straight long position, I think a reasonable target would be $90-$91.

 2 min may have just hit a head fake move or it may make a move a bit lower.

The 1 min chart has been one of the reasons I've kept interest in XOM calls.

The 5 min chart is now progressing as it should at the right time, place and size.

I'd like to see the 10 min chart do the same, but it takes some time for migration of a divergence.

The 15 min chart shows the change in character that got me to open the first XOM long after closing the XOM core short.

VXX, UVXY VIX Futures Update

You saw a lot of the VIX Futures charts already yesterday and today. Yesterday we had a very sharp move to the downside (3C distribution) out of no where, it was curious even though the VXX kept running, as I said yesterday, "Something is going on after days of trade I described as "Blah", today that continues to a leading negative divergence.


Today's charts and recent action.

 We had a positive divergence and a move up, all is well there, but then 3C and price traded together in confirmation, but VXX wasn't showing any distribution or accumulation, yesterday in the afternoon when it suddenly went leading negative before price had really moved up, it was  a very odd change in character and that's what I look for. 

Today as you can see that leading divergence that was a hint is now at a new leading negative low as prices hit new short cycle highs.

The 2 min chart is looking ugly all this morning. We already saw the negative 5-10 min timeframes.

VIX futures were the real giveaway on the 5 min chart, we needed to see 1 min go negative, if the 5 min chart is like the "Firecracker", then the 1 min chart is like the "Fuse".

1 min VIX Futures goes negative intraday.

There's already significant damage to the VIX futures 5 min chart, it just needs that spark.

Trade: Adding to VXX Sept. $17 Puts & Starting UVXY Short Equity

This was the VXX Sept. Put from yesterday that was a partial position , I'll be filling that out to my normal size (spec) options position, UVXY short (equity- the ETF) is meant for a longer, trending trade.

Closing TLT Equity Long

I'm closing this because I think it will see some drawdown and it's opportunity cost with funds locked up in drawdown when they could be deployed elsewhere.

I'll be back to this one as I like it a LOT longer term, I just wish I could find a long term way to leverage this for a trend type trade, the leveraged ETFs have no volume.

 shorter term 5 min looks like it will see downside on a pullback.

The 10 min chart looks more serious, but...

Long term, the 60 min chart looks like TLT is a definite winner, it's just a matter of leveraging up the fairly low beta.