Friday, August 30, 2013

Market Dip Indications

It's always in the afternoon and rarely means much on Friday's with the weekly Options Expiration market pin, but as I noted in the last post, a decline in the market looked highly probable, maybe in to the close. Here's what gave it away for me and I mentioned it because I'd like to use the weakness to get a better price on XLK and TECL.

The VXX is an easy place to pick up on signals for the market as it moves opposite the market, one guess about why we seem to be getting a late day "Slay" could be with a long 3-day weekend, anyone with long exposure may be hedging that by buying VIX futures, when VIX rises, the market moves the opposite direction and falls, considering how late it is and the 3-day weekend as well as the positive signals all through the day earlier, it would seem reasonable that any longs picked up today are being hedged with VIX protection.

 The 1 min UVXY chart (2x leveraged VXX, often tracks VIX Futures better than VXX). The leading negative divergence is the main feature, but intraday you can see a positive move, if we zoom in to intraday really tight....

 This is what we get.

VXX's 2 min leading negative is the big feature of this chart, but again, if we zoom in tight intraday in late afternoon...

We get a small intraday positive.

The SPY 2 min has an intraday negative before it lost any ground.

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