"...when someone is on a roll at the casino, once they lose a bit of money, it's really hard to walk away, they want to get back to those previous adrenaline highs of an hour before and an hour later they return to their room depressed and broke."
" recall what I just said about a gambler who was on a bender and started to lose money, they don't walk away, they refuse to believe."
The point I was making is that after an experience of making some money or even just being on the right side of price (because being right and making money are not always the same thing believe it or not) it's very hard for people like goldbugs (pre-2012) or AAPL hard-core longs (that have been around for years) to just walk away, they refuse to believe that anything can change or at least they refuse to believe "this" move is change and thus that leads to counter trend rallies in which they get deeper and deeper in with averaging down and then the floor falls out from under them.
Our "Retail Sentiment Update" by Sam (thanks as usual) shows the micro behavior of what I was describing as a macro trend in the context of, "It doesn't matter if Wall St. tells them to sell now, they won't believe it and even if they did, WHO WILL THEY SELL TOO- THEY WERE THE GREATER FOOL AT THE END OF THE LINE?".
Sentiment from retail this a.m....
"Seems dip buyers are in:
"SPX ... Went long near support."
"Filled 1/3 size 1st entry for $SPY 170 Oct Calls "
Whether we bounce here or not is not what's important, it's the mentality and how it applies to the bigger picture, this is why counter trend trading in the middle of a bear market is so fun and lucrative.
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