Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Volatility and Credit - the Perfect Bear Storm, only T's down...

I showed Sunday and last week the increasingly bullish (actual VIX Futures-not just VXX) as well as the big 1-day gains made there yesterday vs the nasty 1-day losses in the averages, this is what you come up with...

 THE 5 MIN CHART'S HUGE ADVANCES IN A SINGLE DAY IN VXX pointed out as I asked you to look at yesterday's data ONLY for VXX as well as the averages as there was a feeling of a change of character very early on.

Then the same chart with a longer history with what I ALWAYS considered to be the "Technical Trader's Bear Trap" with a Descending Triangle meant to signal the start of a new leg down, but it saw accumulation instead confirming a bear trap.

 UVXY on an intraday 2 min shows a small head fake move (remember these are in all timeframes and occur just before a reversal, the 2 min chart's HF is proportional just as the 5 min chart's above is proportional for that timeframe.

Thus far we have good upside confirmation which is something we haven't seen in stocks for a long time.

 XIV which is the inverse of VXX and trades with the SPX, also gives us good opening confirmation as the divergence was set up on the close yesterday.
As for VIX Futures themselves, just see the post from Sunday night or any number of them last week showing something big was brewing in actual VIX Futures way out on a 30 min chart...

This 30 min divergence (leading positive) was only half of it, I showed this chart yesterday with the beautiful "Rounding bottom" or "Reversal Process".


 Amazingly they've gained a lot more just since the open!




I also showed how HYG was falling off and not being used, no one wanted to even hold it overnight in THIS POST and MORE SPECIFICALLY, IN THIS POST DURING MARKET HOURS AS IT BECAME CLEAR.
 HYG's 2 min chart confirmed there was no strength behind it as it tried to ramp the market at 10 a.m. and in the afternoon, but retreated in the opposite direction of the market in to the close, like reverse polarity. This told me that no one, even the fast moving lever pullers wanted to be caught without a seat when the music stops.

Thus far we have downside opening confirmation in credit (HYG).

As I mentioned yesterday, only the 1 min was marginally positive at 10 a.m. and the afternoon, otherwise Credit was already on its way down as illustrated by the 5 min HYG chart VERY CLEARLY.

This is why I've been pointing out good looking positions as they have come up, I don't want to be chasing this market after it's too late.

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