CONTEXT and SPY Arbitrage

I've had a couple of questions about the CONTEXT model for ES and SPY Arbitrage model as a possible engine for the market.

First not too long ago (several days) CONTEXT was at a 50-60 point positive differential which  strongly hinted that ES was undervalued by about 50 to 60 ES points.

I could not find any risk assets that would drive the CONTEXT model up that high and speculated it's the falling treasuries which normally move opposite the market, but have been moving with the market since early August.

The CONTEXT model would pick up falling treasuries as bullish for stocks, but they are all falling together on taper concerns so it seems Capital Context has made an adjustment to their model as they often have to when a correlation breaks, here's the new Context ES model.

Negative almost 12 points.

As far as SPY Arbitrage to move the market up, HYG needs to move up and VXX and TLT need to move down, I think HYG will, I think VXX even might, I'm not sure about TLT, but for now there's no arbitrage 

This may all change on a knee-jerk reaction.