Opening Indications

Today so far is just as strange as yesterday, VXX has caught a bid for protection which seems quite normal in front of the F_O_M_C minutes at 2 pm, however a few other things seem a bit strange, take some of the averages (keep in mind this is opening trade and not the best time for analytical data, but... it's what we have)...

 SPY 1 min intraday has come down and is now in line, but this is exactly what I was saying the SPX needed to do to create a bigger base/footprint to support the 15 min positive divergence that is really way too big, too fast for the price formation (there's not enough base).

This is the SPY 15 min leading positive divergence.

The Q's have been the worst underlying performer since last week and probably before, even though at times they have been the best price performer, but we have seen distribution in to every move higher in the Q's.

Here at a 10 min chart we have no such positive divergence like the other averages, but...

This morning the intraday 1 min chart is acting as it should for accumulation and the Q's are the only average that has a foot print large enough to support a 15 min divergence like the one found in the SPY , ironically.

 IWM 15 min leading positive

As I said yesterday, I'd like to see price come down to the recent lows and form a bigger, more stable base if these divergences are to be trusted, otherwise they formed too quickly, as I said, "Like someone knew something about the minutes before anyone else".

The opening IWM is acting normally with a slight positive and price moving up here.

This is the VXX quite suddenly late yesterday catching a bid in to this morning with a gap up.

HYG hasn't done anything definitive, it's drifting a bit lower, but still sharply elevated in a rare "V" shape reversal, another apparent signal that someone found out something and quickly acted on it.

I have a lot more to look at, but as far as the minutes go, Bernie may not want a repeat of the last release in which he had to come out and say something that sounded as if he were talking about QE to keep the market from nose-diving, but as the last policy statement revealed and as I said that very day the minutes were released, "He wasn't talking about QE, although he was vague enough to leave that impression, he was talking about accommodative policy which includes keeping rates low which is what the policy statement confirmed".

The point is, there's a chance that they don't want the market spooked as badly as last time, ALTHOUGH I'M NOT TRIMMING ANY OF THE CORE SHORT POSITIONS. The market has already largely discounted a September Taper, if the minutes suggest a date further out or a more gradual taper or any other dovish concession, then the market should take that well, then we'll know for sure there was a leak and it wouldn't be the first time as the F_E_D was caught red-handed sending 154 emails of the minutes more than 24 hours before their official release to Private Equity firms and big Wall St. banks.

I have some limited "bounce" exposure, GOOG calls, MCP calls, XLF and FSLR calls.

If the evidence builds before the release and there are good signals in an asset, I'd be open to adding more, HOWEVER, we need to keep our eye on the prize and that's using any price strength to add to core short positions.