Thursday, September 19, 2013

FSLR follow up & Sept. $38 Calls P/L

As I just posted, with Theta breathing down my neck, I'm glad to get out of FSLR with the small loss a day before expiration, however I'm very interested in re-entering FSLR, I think though it's prudent to wait for a correction and look for a new entry at a lower cost basis with clear and confirmed signs of accumulation in to the pullback.

First the position closed at an acceptable loss.



At a cost of $2.76 and a fill of $2.32, the P/L for the FSLR Calls is -15.94%, which is about 1% of portfolio so it's well within the risk management standards.

 The Trend Channel recently turned up, the stop here would be around $37.75, I put a pullback range at the white box. One reason I suspect a move toward $37.75 is the price range in yellow, FSLR isn't a 100k volume / $2 stock, they'll be watching it and a head fake move below the yellow range would be a probability.

On the other hand the X-Over Screen shows a new long in FSLR and typically the first pullback is to the 10-day moving average (yellow), so this is why the range is as wide as it is.

These are previous (Custom Demark influenced indicator) buy/sell signals and note the pinching of the Bollinger Bands in the past and now, so I think FSLR is very close to a pullback and move higher, alerts need to be set as to not miss the opportunity.

3C is negative so far to 5 mins, that's not huge so I think the pullback range is within reason.

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