Thursday, September 19, 2013

The Philly F_E_D Again begs the question, "What is the F_E_D so afraid of?"

There's zero doubt that this morning's 10 a.m. Philly F_E_D Regional Manufacturing Survey was in the hands of the F_O_M_C Board well before it was released today, the Philly F_E_D doesn't really fit well with the F_O_M_C's very odd stance yesterday that shocked the market as they F_E_D itself had led the public (through it's "most transparent F_E_D ever") that QE Tapering was all but a done deal, their are so many strange parts to this story I can't say, "The strangest", but I can say the language of "Over the coming months" as if no QE Taper will be considered for at least a few months as Goldman has rewritten their forecast today to say they now expect (instead of the September taper), a December taper announcement that will take 6 months longer than anticipated for the tapering of QE3 to end (according to Goldman's revised forecast) September of next year!

Looking at the Philly F_E_D Survey this morning, something doesn't add up if the F_E_D is basing their forward estimates and guidance on data, which as you know I suspect (irregardless of the data because of the ineffectiveness of QE on the economy), the F_E_D is indeed worried about something larger and quite worried at that.

This morning's 10 a.m. release was a barn burner.
Released On 9/19/2013 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2013
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level9.3 10.0 6.0  to 16.6 22.3 


General Business Activity rocketed higher from 9.3 to more than double at 22.3 at CONSENSUS of (GET THIS!) TEN!!!

Shipments and New Orders printed at 21.2 (New orders were 5.3 previously!)

Backlog Orders printed at a very rare positive 4.3

With all of the new orders, backlogs and shipments, the workweek went from -2.6 to +12.2!

Demand for Employment is up to 10.3 from previous of 3.5

The Six Month Outlook sky-rocketted higher from 38.9 to 58.2 WHICH IS A 10-YEAR HIGH AND JUST SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS.

THE QUESTION REMAINS, "WHAT IS THE F_E_D SO AFRAID OF?"

Considering Larry Summers (Hawk) who was a shoe in was sacked 5 days before he was to be announced as the new candidate for chairman, it suddenly takes on a different light. Is it rising rates, low inflation (unless you eat or drive), the political Budget/Debt fight or something else?

MY POINT IS, WHATEVER IT IS, IT'S LIKELY GOING TO FRIGHTEN THE MARKET MORE THAN THE F_E_D.

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