The 1 min SPY is negative as are the Q's and DIA, the IWM is showing a fast mover a 2 min, the 1 min is in line or better.
Index futures are also showing fast developing intraday negatives in ES, NQ and TF.
I'm VERY close to considering adding that NUGT long, I just feel like I need to wait for something that screams "BUY", even though there's already good chart evidence.
THERE ARE HINTS OF A 3C DIVERGENCE / REVERSAL STARTING TO FORM IN GOLD/GLD.
I have felt that GLD wasn't going positive as a flight to safety asset yet because we were likely (in my opinion) to still remain in a choppy (tradable, but choppy) price range while larger distribution continues, it's as we get toward the reversal from the larger distribution that I see gold as coming together, but there are initial signs of it now developing.
I doubt this is a steering divergence judging by how it is in all of the major averages, I think more likely that was a very specific distribution event. In other words, large funds holding large positions can't sell or short like we can with 1 simple order, they have to break them up in to many smaller orders and route them through multiple market makers/specialists, market ETN facilities like BATS which I understand is having trouble again today- interesting how much trouble the NASDAQ, BATS, COMEX (which also had trouble today) and other facilities/markets are having lately. It would seem almost as if they are seeing so much activity (much of it is quote stuffing) that they haven't been tested on this level before and are seeing breaks in the weak links of their systems which is an interesting insight given the kind of decline I expect and the circuit breaker rules.
What I'm trying to hint at is the amount of chaos these systems would generate in the market as they are breaking down during a market declines.
Just think of the emotional panic among market participants when the market is crashing and you have no ability to place orders or even see quotes as these systems break down, you'd probably want to get out of the market all at once and as fast as possible creating a wider snow ball effect of panic.
Back to my point... I think that was a distribution event, these are the kind of events that are short in duration therefore do not create an intraday trend, but they are numerous and as such, this is why I say., "When you can't make out a market's underlying trade, go to the longer term charts". The reason is simple, all of these short term distribution events show up on longer term charts in the form of a trend as they accrue on longer term charts.
***Remember, Wall St. isn't only fighting to get the best fill on their order by not flooding the market with supply or demand which would cause shifts in price that may take the gains away from their positions they are trying to close and they end up with losses instead.
Furthermore, when we want to trade and open or close a position, we just do it, there's no thought and by not understanding the difference between retail order fills and institutional, you miss a lot of reasons why the market acts as it does. IF a firm puts out too much of a signature that they are distributing or accumulation, there are actually predatory High Frequency trading programs that specialize in front running institutional orders, they are called "Iceberg Hunters".
As I try to get members to think about the difference between the way we trade and the way Wall St. has to trade so you can better understand why the market works the way it does, there's also HFTs Wall St. firms are trying to avoid. As mentioned above, the Iceberg hunters; when Wall St. firms have to sell a position, as we discussed, they can't do it like we can in 1 single order, they'd knock out 20 or more levels of the bid stack and end up getting 10% less for their shares than what it was trading at before they overloaded the system with supply. So these firms put out small chunks, they are called by the HFT community, "Icebergs" because just like with an Iceberg, only the top part is visible, but the majority of the structure is invisible under water so these HFT's will do what is called "Pinging", which would be similar to a submarine or a war ships active sonar where they send out a ping using underwater acoustics and if there's an object like a hidden submarine, the ping will bounce back off the surface of the hidden structure.
HFTs do the same thing, "Ping for icebergs", looking for that one order that stands out as being a fraction of as much larger order. Then because of HFT's speed, they can front run the trade, say an Investment Bank is selling all of their AAPL shares, but in small chunks, if an HFT can identify the iceberg, they'll front run and cause the firm to sell at lower and lower prices, the HFT essentiality short and front running the larger trade so they know they'll make money as they force the market lower and the institution that is selling has no choice but to take the lower price for their shares and as prices move lower it creates a snowball affect as they are more desperate to get out quickly and start putting out larger chunks, causing more predatory HFTs to gang up, again the snow ball effect.
This is not much different than the bear raiding parties of Jesse Livermore's time or what you might see at a bucket shop specializing in manipulation of penny stocks, just on much larger scale.
For now I'm content to sit with the established positions and only enter new positions on their flashing of signals that just can't be ignored.
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