NFP: Non-Farms Payrolls

This morning at 8:30 after a steady run up in futures, the NFP data (the most important Macro-economic event of the day and the week, came in like this...

Released On 9/6/2013 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2013

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change	162,000	175,000	150,000  to 234,000	169,000
Unemployment Rate - Level	7.4 %	7.4 %	7.3 % to 7.5 %	7.3 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change	-0.1 %	0.2 %	0.1 % to 0.4 %	0.2 %
Av Workweek - All Employees	34.4 hrs	34.5 hrs	34.3 hrs to 34.5 hrs	34.5 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change	161,000	178,000	150,000  to 230,000	152,000

Consensus was for a print of 175k-180k, above July's 162k (jobs added), the actual was a disappointing 162k, but for QE, bad news is good news. The Unemployment rate was expected to stay the same at 7.4%, even with the lower jobs for August, the rate dropped to 7.3% (this has to do with the magic of the "Labor Force Participation Rate", if the rate is lower, than even a smaller jobs gain can drop the unemployment rate which is a farce if you go by the headline u# data rather than the more realistic U6 data).

 The SHOCKING part of the report was the July data's downward revision from 162k to 104k (the 2013 average jobs gain per month has been +185 to 200k so July was nearly half the average for the year), this is the "Bad news is good news" for the F_E_D taper in the market's view as this is the "key" to tapering according to the F_E_D, in my view the F_E_D has set their course, they'll largely stick to it and look at this as a "transitory" dip.

Here's a look at some initial reactions, a clearly "TAPER OFF" reaction to the NFP.

 As posted yesterday in "Are USTs to Rally?", the relentless downtrend in Treasuries, sending yields higher and interest rates on nearly everything higher, finally snapped as expected yesterday, this on the NFP. This is the 10-year Treasury futures just prior to the open.

 The $USD snapped lower, opening the way for a move higher in dollar denominated assets like precious metals, oil, etc.

 Gold ripped higher in a "Taper-Off" way on the weaker dollar and hopes that the bad NFP print would stay the F_E_D's hand in the QE taper.

Silver reacted the same way.

 INTERESTING THAT YESTERDAY BOTH GOLD AND GOLD MINERS WERE SHOWING THE PROBABILITIES OF A MOVCE HIGHER TODAY.

"Earlier I posted GLD, I said I'd either add to GDX or use that allocation to open a position in gold long (for a quick trade, again I'm not expecting much moire than a day or two, but we try to take what the market gives)."

Now we see which way the market goes from here, it's interesting that a Taper-off view of the NFP is in place in most risk assets, except (at least as of the regular hours open), in equities...