Tuesday, October 22, 2013

NFP- Hilarity

Last night's post ended with this paragraph:

"Either way, between all of the charts above and the BLS employment data at 8:30, I suspect it will be a volatile day which is great for setting up positions. I'd like to see a head fake move on the upside in Financials/market and see distribution in to that, if we get that, I'll add XLF puts or long FAZ or SKF and maybe add other positions as well.

I'll check in if futures act up, but I doubt they'll do much (just like today( in front of tomorrow's BLS report at 8:30 a.m."

Well the disappointing September Non-Farm Payrolls at 148k on consensus and about average of 180k was sufficiently bad enough news to be good news and no the market didn't do much of anything overnight up until the NFP.

What ZH has caught is truly remarkably finny as the number of full-time workers vs part time has been on a downward trend for some time but accutely the last 5 or 6 months as Obamacare is blamed. So if you skip over the BLS Household Survey at 133k and look at the breakdown of Full/Part time employment, somehow the BLS has magically (once again) taken 594k part time workers and rotated them in to 691k Full time jobs and adding 100k to the employment report in doing so. We always knew the BLS NFP was a "Goal-seeked" number, but in such political fashion as to give Obamacare cover from criticism that it's costing full time jobs?

WOW...


In any case, we have the first part of the volatility needed for a head fake move in Financials and some others look better, we'll see if there's the distribution to confirm it... 

No comments: