XLF, SKF, FAZ Trade update

Yesterday I was hoping early NFP volatility would send XLF above the $21 level, but that just looks like a tough nut to crack as the best we've seen this morning is $20.96. The idea being to just wait through the mid to early afternoon and by then we'd have decent signals as to whether the move was being distributed or of it was confirming/in line.

 Daily XLF, you can see why I'd rather wait for a head fake move with that VERY clear resistance area, that's just too juicy of a target to send a head fake move above, but that would be too juicy of a trade set up to not be paying attention to.

Since I started the post, now we have $20.98, so we're a bit closer, we are above technical resistance, it's the psychological resistance of the whole number $21.00.

That doesn't mean XLF would be a short at $21.01 because once the psychological level is broken, so is the taboo so to speak and other buyers will come in, that's when we want to be watching for distribution or strong hands exchanging shares and rotating to weak hands.

We still have quite a bit of time, but I'm surprised we didn't get more bang out of the NFP. There's also a perception with JPM's latest $13 billion government fine that government is coming after banks to extract a pound of flesh and a lot of capital, in Jamie Dimon's case for speaking out againstDodd-Frank  when he was Obama's most favored banker, perhaps that's why JPM just received a record penalty of $13 bn, but BAC, CITI and others are on the chopping block as well.

You may not remember it, but I predicted or "Thought" this might happen as Wall St. DID NOT turn out with cash for Obama's re-election campaign, I said at the time, "They better hope he doesn't win because if he does, Chicago-style payback is coming".

In any case, I'm going to be patient, see what we get out of this because I do like the banking sector as a longer term play, I think the lawsuits are just getting started, ironically some 5 years AFTER the crime, but only shortly after O's re-election.

Ooppp, there's $21, keep an eye on volume and see if anyone is biting.