Wednesday, October 9, 2013

VXX , UVXY and VIX Futures

It looks like pretty good timing on those VXX puts, I didn't want them to see downside momentum and have the premium jump, but there were enough leading negative divergences that it was really close to doing exactly that.

 VIX Futures on a 15 min chart have been in trouble since late Friday when the other negative divergences were evident especially in the afternoon. Despite the VIX making some record setting moves, the underlying trade suggested this was more retail than anything driving the moves or if anything, institutional involvement was on the manipulative side, otherwise, we'd see a new high in 3C which never came.

 VXX (short term VIX Futures) is leading negative on this chart in a single day, that's some serious distribution, that was about all I needed to see, but the intraday charts are the timing.

The 1 min VXX is strongly leading negative today and yesterday as well, which kind of backs up my view that the price action of the last several days has been to accumulate on the cheap, how else can we explain HY Credit's position?

UVXY is the 2x leveraged version of VXX, some say it tracks better, I use it for confirmation as it is a 2x asset and because it's managed by a different group (Proshares vs. Ipath) so the signals shouldn't be similar unless something is really going on.

 the 5 min leading negative so we have good migration from the 1 min chart through the 5 and on the 15 (10 min charts are neg. too).

 XIV is an inverse of VXX and managed by a third group (Velocity), this should show the opposite, a leading positive divergence, making it a buy and on this 5 min chart, it does exactly that so we have good confirmation between 3 different assets managed by 3 different groups with the actual VIX futures confirming, 3C "Compare, compare, compare) is pretty well satisfied.

At this point, I think the best entry for options has passed, but VXX can still move quite a bit and the leveraged version can certainly move so I would consider a short VXX trade or long XIV worthwhile, especially if they get a correction.




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