Wednesday, November 6, 2013

GLD/GDX...

If I were to take profits on GLD and GDX December calls from yesterday, this morning would have been the time while we were seeing double digit gains, this is why I like taking profits with options BEFORE momentum dies. As upside momentum dies and became lateral, the gains dissipated as well from double digit gains down to single digit gains. However I chose to hold both for a longer term position and a larger upside move, although these were always considered to be short duration trades, I just think there's more than just this.

GLD and Gold Futures charts....
 GLD showed initial profit taking this morning sending GLD in to a lateral trading range as is common with a 1 min only negative divergence. Since, the divergence and underlying trade has improved as I suspected it would based on longer term charts.

 2 min overall trend, but intraday it stayed fairly in line or maybe positive, this suggested that the highest short term probability was sideways/lateral trade, if the 2 min had been clearly negative than a pullback would be high probability and I would have taken profits earlier today.

3 min positive yesterday which is one of the reasons the calls were entered yesterday. 

 GLD 15 min shows the negative leading to a pullback that I think will ultimately continue, but before that happens, a weak positive divergence suggested an upside move.

The hourly chart also has a fairly positive divegrence for the short term which is what these positions were meant for. 

Gold Futures
 5 min positive and leading positive which is typical progression of a positive divergence.

15 min gold futures are positive and the range is well defined.

30 min gold futures have the pullback signal and shorter term positive for an upside move before we continue lower and eventually get to a strong, long duration GLD long.

GDX-gold miners...
 intraday we have the flat range and negative divegrence on the 1 min

However the 2 min is largely in line which puts intraday probabilities at a lateral consolidation.

GDX 5 min shows a leading positive divegrence so I think there's enough gas in the tank to make a larger upside move probable.

GDX 15 min shows the initial positive, the pullback negative signal which I think will eventually continue for a deeper pullback before making GDX a good looking, low risk, longer duration long position.

As you know, I decided to give the December GLD and GDX calls more time.

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