Special Market Update

Again, these updates are a bit more difficult for people to put in to context because it is multiple timeframe analysis. However I think it is the most effective; if you were to ask me if I'm bearish or bullish gold or oil, the answer would completely depend on the timeframe we are dealing with. I can't assume you are looking and trading the same charts as I am (say a swing trader using 15 min chart vs a position trader using 1-day or an investor using weekly), the answer depends on comparing apples to apples and in those answers, we can often discover what trend A, B and C will be moving forward and determine that "A" is a small short duration, "B" is an intermediate duration which we'd use different assets to trade and "C" is a long duration and that is managed totally differently.

I'll try to make this as simple as possible, from the charts already posted and Leading Indicators which I'll update on a closing basis, I think the market short term (Monday) moves up, but I still think this move up is within an intermediate or slightly longer duration "Chop zone", while the larger trend (and in this case I'm just talking about the cycle that started at the 10/9 lows and topped 10/29) is very much bearish.

As a result, I have no plans to change any core shorts, I don't even plan to change the leveraged ETF trading shorts. I think options for a short duration long trade in something like the SPY are about as far as I'd go and I'm not even willing to go there.

I learned my lesson by putting too much weight on the intraday charts and trying to trade around the larger trend with AAPL, it cost me a -45% gain that I had in place a day earlier.

I'll show these particular charts after market, HYG, although underperforming intraday, has seen the same kind of short term accumulation as the SPY just posted. VXX overall is underperforming enough that the SPY Arb could be used, it was used today from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. to help the market off intraday lows. 

CONTEXT is positive 10 ES points, so everything seems to be in line with a move to the upside, again short duration and I think the highest probability is it is just the first or really second swing in a wider chop area which is a very dangerous place to try to navigate.

While I do update these intraday charts and likely short term moves, I strongly encourage you to put them in their respective context within multiple timeframe analysis.

I have very little doubt this market is toast and we will see a leg down below the 10/9 lows coming, in reality it already started with a trend of lower highs/ lows.

I don't see any specific assets as of yet that I think are worth the risk to try to trade this leg, but I'll keep looking.