Wednesday, December 4, 2013

GLD Part 2

To save some time, here are the charts for GLD from yesterday including gold futures.

I liked GLD enough that I put it in as a trading position in the trading tracking portfolio, which I'm still experimenting with, but so far is up +11% and hasn't been open for more than a week and this doesn't count some of the more aggressive positions like the ones I wanted to take yesterday for today and there are no options either, just equity positions.

I added UGLD yesterday because of the charts above, I held NUGT which was the only position of 7 in the red.

Obviously I'm not going to be opening anymore positions in either, but I wanted to show you what's going on as you may be interested.

Since yesterday with GLD/gold...

First I consider GLD to be under the head fake area so it has not completed a head fake move, that's where the momentum comes in.

 Here's the initial second touch of support to create what I suspected would be a larger "W" base, good for gold longer term, the base looks complete so a head fake move right before a reversal is the norm, you can see stops were hit and volume increased, part of the reason for these moves as institutional money trades in size and needs 2 things in this situation, supply and lower prices, a break through an obvious stop level provides them with both. Watch how 3C reacts below this level.

In white is yesterday's UGLD position opening in the trading tracking portfolio, again, another buy right at the very bottom.. We have a move through a second break that I didn't expect, but it was short lived and provided a better entry with less risk.

 This is the "W" base, the first half to the left, then some distribution to knock prices back down and the second to the right followed by the stop run, that's where 3C sees the strongest divergence as it is where the most supply at the best prices is to be found.

 Since late yesterday, look at this insane, nearly vertical divergence and on a longer 10 min chart, this is really impressive and it's no surprise we saw a move like today's, but ultimately this is pointing to a much bigger move.

The 5 min is at a new leading positive high so near term action looks healthy.


I'd rather buy a pullback, but I think anywhere below the red trendline is ultimately a very good price.

The 2 min is quick to reflect the market and it looks healthy

The 1 min is in perfect confirmation so I am really happy with yesterday's choice and I continue to like the asset, I just prefer not to chase as you know.

Gold Futures
Look at the accumulation (extra) at yesterday's dip, that's important and I wouldn't have entered gold unless I saw signals like that.




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