Wednesday, December 4, 2013

More on ISM

This ISM is services and as we were just talking about with regard to Dow Theory "Confirmation " between Industrials and Transports being an antiquated idea, because the US is more of a services economy now than manufacturing. What I suspected sent the market popping is not just the headline miss that is still in growth territory, but the sub-index of employment which fell to 6 month lows, that's what it's all about in front of Non-Farm Payrolls, if the NFP wasn't this Friday, the knee jerk effect would still be there, but the further we were from NFP, the less effect it would have, being we are only 2 days from it (Friday), any hint at what NFP might come in at is basically betting the farm on QE taper or not.


Glad I closed the VXX calls yesterday.

The question still remains, whether late afternoon accumulation, as you saw from 3C and VWAP, around 1:30-2:30 was on a leak or not. BLS data gets leaked, that's why they're building a new media center and have admited that's the reasons, I don't see why ISM couldn't be leaked just as easily.

As I said last night, if any of yesterday's POMO was a part of this...

" I'm not saying the POMO money did or did not end up in the market, but if it did, then it's another change of character as it is being used to set up brief fade trades, the same kind I would have taken by selling the VXX calls and buying IWM puts today for a 1-day trade."
 (from last night's Daily Wrap...ironic)

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