Thursday, December 19, 2013

Good Morning

I've been watching the market this morning, so far that's about the extent of my plans. Yesterday was exhausting, but it was really uplifting to get so many emails from people who made money following the trading portfolio and even had so much trust as to take the TQQQ long trade just before the F_O_M_C, that's an honor and I thank you for that and for letting me know how you did, it's always good to hear someone appreciates what you are doing; when I ran my own custom wood shop or managed the finishing department for a really high-end one, my guys would do anything for me, if I had to stay late until midnight to get a project out the door the next morning I wouldn't even have to ask them to stay because I always let them know what a great job they were doing and when they were messing up, I never criticized them, but put it in terms of, "You know, I use to always have difficulty with this and here's what I did to overcome it", plus in the 9 years I was there I never once asked for a raise for myself, although back then I was the highest paid finisher around, making nearly 6 figures when most made $14 an hour, I got raises, I never asked for them. However, I always went to bat for my guys and got them raises. The point simply being, everyone like to hear their work is appreciated, in my experience if it's sincere, it often means more than a raise.

Honestly yesterday took a lot out of me, I know you probably think I'm being dramatic or this is hyperbole, but CNBC just does something to me like Kryptonite. I made the mistake of being too busy to get up and turn it off after the F_O_M_C and my ears were defiled for far too long, when I turned my TV on later I caught Cramer acting like a clown on TV and I just can't take it, I can't take someone lying to my face and the sad thing is Cramer is a REALLY smart guy with a TON of knowledge to offer, his Street.com interview that I mentioned the other night was one of the best interviews I've seen (other than talking with floor traders and hedge fund managers myself), but his carrying water for Goldman, his over-simplification of the market as if we were all 7 year olds, his flat out lying (all characteristics of the Wall St. types) and most of all, the misleading of all of those viewers, is just too much for me, especially when I know how much he really has to offer if he ever really wanted to.

So it's too early to say if this was the knee jerk move (the first move generally is), it's too early to say if it's over, remember we have Quad Witching tomorrow so be prepared for Ultra-voltility, I'm not hedging analysis, I'm trying to anchor expectations the same way I always warn about the F_E_D knee-jerk move, I want people to understand what to expect, what it is and not get caught in emotional traps over seeing something like that which you've been warned to expect, especially if you've been here a while, I ALWAYS warn before F_E_D events because it's always the same.

So far this morning the interesting or most interesting thing is still the vIX, I'm convinced either the taper was leaked or as I put forward Tuesday night, they inoculated the market just the same way they did on the strong NFP print, whether inside information of the NY F_E_D's open market's desk. Either way, I'm glad to have sold yesterday. I'm usually not hard on myself over a trade going wrong, that's just the cost of doing business, but I'm having a REAL hard time with that fat finder trade in PCLN, I'd have a killer return right now, I worked hard on that decision and blew it on the order, that was just not paying attention.

So here's what's cooking and interesting this morning, IT IS STILL THE VIX / VXX THAT'S GOING TO LEAD THE WAY.

 VXX made the call to buy TQQQ yesterday just before the policy statement and the rounding and positive intraday are VERY interesting as is the migration below.

2 min chart.

The charts of the averages as pointed out in ES last night are interesting too, but we're only 3 hours in to this so the dust hasn't settled, but that's what I'm looking for. Everyone said "Don't fight the Fed Sept. 2012", I said I don't care about market mantras, I care about evidence and the evidence was negative and that day was the same day the market topped for several months and it took several more months just to get back to that level so I'll take objective data over "mantras" and fear driven analysis based on nothing but a saying.

So I'm watching, looking, if a trade pops up or management of one is necessary I'll be looking for that (PCLN should be getting interesting really soon, you know my target to start getting really serious about that one).

Again, if I'm quiet today, that means the absolute opposite of what you think, I never take even so much as a 5 min. break rom 8 a.m. to typically 4 p.m., maybe 15 minutes and then back to work until 8 or 11 p.m. so the quieter I am, the more busy I am.

Lets see what we can find that the crowd is missing.

*My apologies if you like Cramer's show, I don't mean to say anything bad in that way, if you find it helpful and it adds value to your trading, then by all means I would listen too, I just know how smart he is and to have him talk to his viewers like they were in diapers (compared to what he knows) is just flat out insulting and to me bad character.


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