Market Update

I've had quite a few questions about what I think the market or the averages (might be more appropriate) are going to do. First lets look at them and keep in mind my custom TICK indicator has gone negative, meaning like a MACD histogram that has peaked, it's moving down now.

 DIA 1m

DIA 3m

DIA 5m

IWM 2m

IWM 5m

IWM 10m

QQQ 1m

QQQ 2m

QQQ 5m

SPY 1m

SPY 2m

SPY 5 m

All of these have some negative movement and most have a little in line or positive movement in the timeframes we can expect to move today.

To me there's still a lot of dispersion, my best guess is that these are getting in position for tomorrows quad-witching options expiration and thus there will be differences between the averages or assets. This is one of the reasons I'm keen on VXX, this is more of a broad measure of where fear and complacency are, outside of a 1-day event that is coming up tomorrow.

To answer the question, I really don't know if they are going to make any significant moves today and if they did, the 3C divergence would have to be every strong for me to take a position, however if VXX keeps moving the way it is, I may take positions based on that. Otherwise the best policy may be to wait, let them pin numerous options on the biggest expiration (Quad) and go from there.

Again, like the F_E_D knee jerk reaction, the volatility that comes along with Quad witching week is notorious, it shouldn't be taken as a signal of the market's true intensions because it has an agenda all its own that is short in nature, but can be very volatile in practice.

This is one of those hard times to not only be patient, but not to let price movement scare you or cause you to get greedy.