More Color on the NFP...

Here's some more color on the NFP from 8:30 this morning.

Released On 12/6/2013 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2013

Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 204,000  180,000  140,000  to 200,000  203,000  Unemployment Rate - Level 7.3 % 7.2 % 7.0 % to 7.3 % 7.0 % Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.4 % 0.2 % Av Workweek - All Employees 34.4 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs Private Payrolls - M/M change 212,000  173,000  145,000  to 200,000  196,000  First the NFP came in on top of the top end of the consensus range (203k vs.200k). Second the unemployment rate came in at the bottom of the range at 7% with consensus at 7.2%, that's a pretty good clip. The work week and Average hourly earnings came in spot on, they aren't headline so they can come in at consensus. Private payrolls dropped from 212k to 196k, but beat consensus of 173k. The number of people not in the labor force declined modestly to 91.3MM from 91.5MM As mentioned, October was revised down from 204k to 200k, but September was revised up  to 175k from 163k so the net revision for the two months was +8k. Out of 8 of the major Money Center banks, only 1 of 8 came close, Barclays forecast 200k, everyone else was below from 165k to 190k with the median around 180k. After the print, it seemed there was some confusion between the Carry tracing algos and carbon based traders, the algos following a higher USD/JPY as the USDX gained on the data (actually not good in this case, a higher USD is a sign of Taper on), vs the humans who knew that.

 $USDX up, a sign of Taper on/QE off as the $USD isn't being diluted by printing.

However the USD/JPY was the carry trade ES was following all night. Actually all carry (yen based) pairs are up on the print.

*Remember what I said yesterday about the emotional knee-jerk reaction

So ES followed the carry trade, even though the reason for the rise in the carry was a "bad news" reaction from the $USD, when Taper of QE looks probable the $USD rises, gold falls and treasuries fall- at least that was the typical reaction, but remember gold came unhinged from QE in 2011. Gold futures actually look pretty decent here as the market seems to have adjusted to the new "normal" correlation.

 Gold Futures...

Interestingly, Bonds 10 and 30 year look similar in their reaction...

10 year Treasury Futures. When the open comes, we often see another jerk in another direction. In any case, if I have time I'll try to pull the complete U1-U-6 employment series.