Two Sided Coin

Good morning, I hope everyone had a nice holiday, it seems like many of you are still on holiday, cheers!

As trade and futures resumed it seems like a small tail of two cities. The Nikkei gained +1% after the Yen dropped on the release of the BOJ minutes which contained nothing new at all, it's still full-steam ahead with monetary policy on the same course set so why there was a discount to the Yen is beyond me, the minutes were exactly as expected.

However the Shanghai Composite (China) was down -1.6% (now we have global index dispersion), this apparently coming on Chinese reports that growth in China is expected to have slowed this year.

Initial Claims in the US (seemingly under the spell of the seasonal adjustment) posted the largest week over week decline since 2006, while Continuing Claims hit the 3rd consecutive / week of higher prints, overall for the 3 week period, the largest 3 week surge in 5 years.

This morning really feels like a story of heads and tails.

With Seasonal Adjustments now upon us (especially BLS data) and the number of people counted in the work force about to be cut by over a million people as lawmakers allow extended benefits to end next week with no replacement program, the unemployment rate should start sliding to mind-boggling lows, the situation on the ground will be exactly the same, all the magic is done in the corridors or power and their computers, but it seems if the F_E_D wanted to tie their exit from QE and the start of rate hikes to low unemployment, they could not have started the taper at a better time than December with at least 4 months of seasonal adjustments ahead and millions falling off the official tally of who is considered to be in the labor force. It almost has to make one wonder.

I didn't think it probable, but volume today is far lower than it was at the same time Wednesday, far, far lower.

Also of interest, the 1 min IWM 3C chart that was exactly in line with price both Monday and Tuesday's shortened session and kept prices stable and climbing intraday, while longer timeframes showed distribution, has finally broken.