Thursday, December 26, 2013

UNG / DGAZ Update

UNG is and has been for some time, one of my favorite long term long positions, it may even be a secular bull market for NG, however since it has made a significant breakout, it looks ready to correct which is actually good to see, a healthy correction. I've been trying to play the other side of that with a trading long in DGAZ (3x short Nat Gas). I can't add much to the trading position, nothing meaningful, but if I could I would.

I'd also be on the lookout in the weeks ahead for a new UNG long entry on a pullback.

Here are the charts.
 UNG 2 min, these are my favorite divergences, they are confirming a trend and then they show a divergence, soon after price starts to follow, to me they have a lot of credibility.

 UNG 10 min, I think UNG sees a sharp pullback, but I'm betting it accumulates in to the pullback which would make DGAZ long a great play in to the pullback and then take profits there and enter UNG long after it has proven itself to be a constructive pullback in which you enter at a discount with low risk.

UNG 30 mins is another one of those charts, the accumulation is clear, the confirmation of the uptrend is clear and  then 3C has something else to say, price in UNG is obviously responding.

DGAZ has the same type of chart, confirmation of a trend and then something changes and price is responding already as a reversal process is clear in the "U" shape from a diagonal downtrend.

Here are several divergences, all worked perfectly so I think UNG gets a decent pullback which makes DGAZ an interesting play on the UNG pullback. I'd say I consider DGAZ a swing long and then UNG should make a core long.

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