Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Interesting Activity

I was just getting my charts together for the "Daily Wrap" post and noticed something interesting, I had just picked up my Yen intraday chart and came back and something had changed substantially.


The Original Chart... Yen 1 min intraday
 This chart shows the action in 3C/Yen since 1 a.m. to almost present.

I was going to point out this chart in a series of Yen charts that are very strong. We have the positive divergences in the Yen as it comes out on the right side of the overnight reversal/rounding process, the Yen moves up with 3C confirmation (green arrow) and then goes negative when I warned the market was going to retrace some of it's losses from the overnight highs to the regular hour lows (remember the Yen and market trade opposite each other). 

By the time I got back from my Doctor's appointment around 2 pm the Yen was in a new positive divegrence and starting a new reversal/rounding process as can be seen far right.

Minutes later I come back to the same chart and...

 To the far right there's a new, but very fast, sharp leading positive divegrence, you can see it as a nearly vertical line (3C) moving up. There's a very sudden change of character from a positive divergence forming at a predictable rate to a suddenly sharp leading positive which could be a large cover of the Yen from a carry position.

I also noticed the Russell 2000 futures showing the morning negative divegrence as the US markets opened for normal hours, the afternoon positive divegrence I warned of and retracement of some of the a.m. losses and there are some negatives in to the close, but just after and around the same time as the Yen, TF goes sharply negatively divergent which is confirmation as the two trade opposite and should have opposite signals. This signal is even deeper now since just capturing the chart minutes ago, it's now at the deepest leading negative position on the chart.

I'm not sure what's causing this, but this may substantially alter my EOD analysis so I'm going to give it some time and see what builds or sticks and see what I can find in FX land.


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