Tuesday, January 21, 2014

MCP Update

It looks like MCP just hit another cluster of stops and it looks like again they were accumulated. MCP is looking very interesting, there's only a couple things missing that I'd like to see, one is a few more leading positive divergences and the second is some kind of reversal process because a "V" reversal is not likely.
 Here's what triggered the stops, as usual technical traders are extremely predictable as to where they put their orders, but the pros have the full depth of the book so if you put in an order with your broker, they see it, why would you show your cards when playing poker? Worse yet, why do something so predictable. In any case, you should be able to see the small "W" base to the far right just before there was a breakout, it's support of that base that triggered the next round of stops and they appear to have been accumulated.

 This is a 5 min chart showing the break of that exact support and the stops getting nailed, someone is on the other side of that trade.

 The 2 min 3C chart shows a leading positive divegrence (coming out of a relative positive divegrence to the left) right at the spot where those stops were run, which is a kind of head fake move.

The 3 min chart shows this more clearly plus gives us confirmation that there is migration of the divergence (a stronger building divergence or underlying trade/accumulation).

Overall, the 10 min chart has shown the probabilities are very good we have been looking at a constructive pullback, it appears someone wants to load up on MCP on the cheap and they are using stop runs to accumulate which leads me to believe they may be pressed for time as they aren't taking the normal route of a range.

This is the 60 min chart, the distinction between distribution and accumulation is very clear, it's also the same time Goldman came out with a negative hit piece so guess who is accumulating MCP? I''d bet Goldman's fingerprints are all over this one.

 There are some support-like candlesticks popping up.

The 2-3 min charts are also leading positive even more.

This doesn't have the reversal process I'd like to see yet to fill out the long trading position, but this is the kind of downside momentum with accumulation that I love to use to enter options, I'm thinking February $5 calls, maybe March,. I'm going to check out what they look like and of course if a position is going to be started, I'll let you know first.


No comments: