Market Update

First my view is Don't Chase, this is why we enter shorts on strength, if anything I'm looking at longs on weakness, MCP for example although I don't want to be anywhere near leaning new long, there are a few I like.

The market is trying to get a foothold here, technical traders see a break of a level like the 1/21 lows, think support is broken, go short way deep in to this move and the first shakeout/bounce washes them out, this is what I mean when I say they use Technical Analysis against you, I can predict where the stops are, they can see them with the full book!

That being said, I'm not letting go of any of my short positions either, just sitting on my hands and looking for the opportunities, they'll take care of themselves.

Here are some charts, you'll probably find them interesting as several intraday extremes were pointed out yesterday, when you see the charts below you should remember, so was there some insider knowledge? I don't know, I trust the IMF about as much  as I trust the F_E_D, but the weakness was there.

I might take some profits in puts, but right now I don't have many, I've been missing fills left and right on options. I do want to point out I was talking to a member yesterday about the IWM Feb. 118
Put which was down -24% yesterday, I said, "That can change very quickly with that much time"... today it's down only 11% of position, not portfolio.

 SPY 1 min positive, note the intraday rounding which is more advanced than this capture, this is trying to get a foothold and probably will, not a big deal, but this is why we don't chase.

Remember the QQQ / IWM charts with extreme intraday negative divergences yesterday I posted? This is the QQQ, it too is trying to get a foothold here, but the interesting this is the distribution in to the afternoon, it was pretty sharp. I think the IWM was worse and that's why I was looking at SRTY yesterday (3x short IWM), that would have made for a quick trade this morning if opened yesterday.

 This QQQ 2 min chart was perfectly in line and then the floor fell out, it's still leading negative after this morning's move so we do have some serious weakness.

Remember this IWM chart-3 min that went negative, but nearly a vertical drop, it has added to that divegrence since then, but that was strong, fast distribution.

My Custom SPY/TICK indicator shows the market is trying to get a foothold, we want to pay attention in case it fails, but the shorts are/should be in place prior to today, I'd really be careful about chasing anything here unless it's in good position.