Thursday, January 2, 2014

MCP Follow Up

Tuesday I took half of the MCP long off the table to protect profits and hopefully re-enter at a lower price on a pullback, I still love MCP as a long term long position, but just needed to trade around some pullback signals. However as a core long, I'd leave it as is and just be patient.

We now have more than a 25% gain in MCP and another near 6% today, but I don't regret taking half off the table, I left half on for this very reason.
I think probabilities are mounting for a pullback, which should be a healthy event and an opportunity.

Here are the charts and you can see why...
 The long term 60 min chart is beautiful, a great base and strong accumulation right where it should be and likely Goldman is behind it. However a very parabolic move with gaps and more.

1 min intraday shows a small late day positive divergence and the gap up that is now in line this morning, however...


 The 5 min chart shows the accumulation that started this move and now the negative signal suggesting a pullback, nothing bad, nothing unusual, just what a healthy stock should do.

The 10 min shows the same, it's hard to justify not taking some off the table in a TRADING account, as for a long term trend account, leave it alone, when you try to get too fancy you just drive up transaction costs and the chances of missing a big move.

The X-over Screen has posted 3 confirmed long signals and a breakout from a trading range where accumulation was heavy. In this case, the most likely scenario is a pullback to the 10-day yellow moving average as that is what typically happens on a new X-Over signal.

You can also see (as of now), today is forming a Evening Star bearish reversal candle that would fit with a pullback so... I MAY TAKE THE REST OFF THE TABLE IN MCP (TRADING POSITION, NOT THE CORE LONG POSITION).

I'll let you know as I keep an eye on it, but those gaps with those divergences are likely going to pull price in to them where MCP should be an AWESOME NEW LONG POSITION or an add to position, we just need to see accumulation on a pullback, but judging by the longer charts, that's 85% (conservatively) likely.

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