SPY Options Opportunity, but...

Considering the first trading day of the new year traditionally is one of the strongest and most consistent, today is not good news for the bulls that believe the F_E_D will never leave them in their heyday. It's difficult to see all the contingencies and possibilities months in advance, but the F_E_D or F_O_M_C (same difference as they say) seems to have put off the initial taper plans from summer as the market threw a fit (bonds) and sent yields soaring on the 10-year.

The same thing is happening now, last I saw the 10-year had crossed solidly above 3% which one of the last two times it did that, it led to a -20% decline just back in 2011. I find it interesting that they chose the period of not only seasonal adjustments which is arbitrary economic data production that makes Window Dressing look like nothing more than window cleaning. These seasonal adjustments are so bunk, no one can figure out how they arrived at the numbers they do and they aren't willing to be forthcoming about it. It's what is generally known as "Goal seeked data", meaning put in the number you want and the computers will figure out how to get you there. 

With strong economic data as the Seasonal adjustment period runs through the first quarter of the year, the F_E_D has lots of ammo to taper even more. Secondly they act just as Congress lets the extended unemployment benefits expire, remember the F_E_D has tied "accommodative policy" which is not just QE as most assume, but more so it is leaving rates super low with this ZIRP policy. This means that the unemployment rate has virtually nowhere to go but down no matter how bad the labor situation is because those who fall off the unemployment benefits as millions will as their extended benefits were cut (I believe they just got their last check) ARE NO LONGER COUNTED AS PART OF THE LABOR FORCE!

When you take the available number of people in the labor force and shrink it by millions, it doesn't matter if unemployment rises in reality, it can't rise fast enough to make up for the millions of people who are suddenly no longer considered part of the labor pool. It's an ingenious, but really crappy thing to do, especially for a F_R_D that claims to be so transparent. The average Joe might not get all of this, but those who make their living on Wall St. know exactly what it means and I have to wonder what the blowback is going to be on this one.

In any case, this is the kind of move I spoke of earlier in which I'd consider an options position, long call...

 I sid a move below today's range and there it is, there's an intraday positive divegrence, I looked at it, I thought about it and I looked at this next chart and made up my mind...

The 15 min SPY leading negative divegrence which is just super strong right at the bump to highs on a EOD, SUPER low volume melt-up.

I can't go for a SPY call, not with this chart, this is just trouble waiting to happen and as high as my risk tolerance is, I could not relax after the close with a long SPY position open knowing this is out there.

That's where I'm at with this.