Friday, January 3, 2014

MCP Update

This is more for anyone who may have calls or a short term trading position (long).

As I have said consistently, for core long positions, I see no reason to change anything, just let it be and it will be fine.
 1 min looks like it may be able to add a little bit more on the upside as a recent positive divergence formed in to a pullback, but keep in mind this is a 1 min chart, this is not a big, powerful or very reliable divergence.

 The 2 min chart has seen some migration so it could be worth taking a shot on, I would not even consider opening a long position for this divergence unless it was positive out to 5 mins which it is not.

3 min shows the concept I was just elaborating on, short term positive (you might even think of it as a market maker pushing prices higher to be able to fill at the best area knowing if they try to fill without some upside momentum, they'll be filling in to lower prices and they rely on business from Private /Equity, Hedge funds and banks as they specialize in one or several stocks, they know it better than anyone, know how to move it and as such are paid for their services in filling orders for the above mentioned.

 As I said, at 5 mins this is not positive, it's clearly ready to pullback shortly, I have been asked if MCP is a good short on the pullback or perhaps a put position.

While I don't disagree that money could be made, I think it's a bad habit to trade against an asset that you know is strong. I think I've used the example of an army platoon leader coming across a mine field and deciding the best way to navigate the mine field was to close his eyes and walk across. If he's successful, it sets a dangerous precedent as he encounters mine fields in the future and says, "Well, closing my eyes and walking across worked last time". I think you get my drift, while you may be successful in your endeavor, it sets a dangerous precedent that given enough time will almost certainly come back to haunt you.

Trading is often about developing good habits and procedures and they are only effective over the long haul if you are consistent.

This is not to say that all counter trend corrective moves should be treated the same, we just happen to know that MCP is an exceptionally strong asset.


 For instance, the 60 min chart, it's not just the divegrence, it's not just the "W" base, it's also the ultimate size of the round reversal process, remember that they are usually proportional so a rounding reversal process that takes 2.5 months to create is not likely to produce a move up on only a week, it is likely to produce a move up (in this case of at least another 2 points bare minimum and just about as likely to produce a longer term trend that moves well above $12.50-$15 so an easy double.

Hopefully the short term signals will be useful to some of you who may have a trading position or an options (call ) position.

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