Monday, January 13, 2014

TBT Trade Idea...

As mentioned last night, the 30 year Treasury futures look like they'll see a near term pullback. That would include the 20+ year bond fund TLT so TBT (long) is a position that works for playing that pullback (it's the inverse of TLT with 2x leverage.).

This TBT idea would really be a trade only.

 TLT 1 min and 2 min above are negative from in line.

 There's migration to the 3 min chart

And to the 5 min chart, this is essentially where it stops and thus why I say a trade only, but with TBT's 2x leverage, it can still be worthwhile.

TBT is positive through the intraday charts confirming TLT signals, this is the 5 min where we left off with TLT above.

Even the 10 min is positive, it's hard to make a case much beyond 10 min and when we get in to 30 and 60 min, TLT is clearly still in very strong position so a pullback would be useful for entering a longer term TLT long position.

I'm going to hold off on TBT at the moment just because I'm considering TBT and MCP and likely some others soon,. As I'm trying to keep the trading portfolio realistic and not have more positions than I'd normally have in it, I want to make sure which ever way I go, it looks to be the most bang for the buck, however both look good, but both are in need of just a little more work, I think MCP is further along, but it also seems to be a bigger move we are looking at there so they may be ready at the same time.

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