Carry Trade Update

As was proposed earlier today, the USD/JPY suspicions remain on track, take a look...

 The 3C intraday USD/JPY is seeing a continued negative divegrence, at this point it has moved to a stronger leading negative and pretty intensely.

The Yen and $USD should confirm...

 Here the Yen is confirming with a larger positive divgerence. What I said I was looking for earlier today was the Yen downside to subside and a lateral trend to establish in which a positive divegrence would build, that has been the case all day and as you see we are not totally lateral in the Yen, confirmation.

The $USD is seeing a larger negative divegrence which is what we would want to see.

As far as the SPY Custom TICK Indicator, we see the intraday market breadth is weakening here.

Note breadth deteriorating as the USD/JPY also deteriorates in 3C underlying trade.

I still think an SPX breakout of local resistance has a decent probability, maybe 65%-70%, this is based more on market behavior and keeping retail confused and locked in to bull traps, it's not as much based on underlying trade, but I wouldn't expect anything very serious, it's not that far to go and there should be a lot of limits and maybe a few stops, that's easy money for Wall St., even if you only consider the Bid/ask spread on a spike in volume. It's so close, I wouldn't let it go if I were running the criminal syndicate, however it has no importance other than using it to your advantage as laid out earlier today.

The main point is the expectations of deterioration in the USD/JPY are no longer theoretical, they are real.