EOD Charts

The carry cross today was like walking a tight-rope, both Yen and $USD has negative signals for most of the day, but USD/JPY gave a little help into the close, it also gave a clean negative divergence in to the close as well.

We don't get many "V" reversals or what I call a reversal event, rather we usually get a reversal process which is the rounding put in today, but that almost always comes with that chimney which was the entire basis for only opening a partial SPXU long until it had hit some stops and created that chimney.

That gives us a daily candlestick reversal pattern pretty darn close to a Hanging Man on the SPX.

After a +1.33% performance Friday with Thursday/Friday's 2-day performance the best in 4 months, today's 0.15% SPX performance isn't what you'd call follow through, but it was enough to get a reversal process in, this is why I said I expected the downside move early this week or Monday, it's hard to tell how much of a reversal process will be put in or how much fear will dominate.

In any case, we have a closing SPX candlestick that's pretty darn close to a bearish reversal Hanging Man which is a huge change in character after Thursday/Friday's price candles.

This is HYG being used at the end of the day to lift the SPX, again I think this is just part of that chimney building.

This is the 1 min intraday HYG chart which was in line, but it's only a 1 min signal, behind the scenes HYG is not looking so hot.

This is the 5 min leading negative divegrence there.

As all of this was happening, I wanted to see what the flight to safety assets were doing so I switched to Leading Indicators...

 This is VXX (Short term VIX futures) vs the SPX (green), except as usual I've inverted the SPX's price today to see the correlation between the two and right where the SPX is making that move with the help of HYG, you see VXX massively outperforming the SPX as there's a flight to protection in VIX.

The other flight to safety is Treasuries, here I used TLT (20+ year T's) and it too massively outperformed an inverted SPX while the SPX "looked" strong toward the EOD.

In addition, I checked their 3C charts.

 VXX / UVXY already have a huge leading positive divergence (accumulation), but during that specific time, it's added to all the way out to a 10 min chart on an intraday basis which means there was some heavy activity.

TLT saw the same accumulation at the same area after already having a huge leading positive divegrence in place.

As I said, USD/JPY also gave the market a little goose, but it was largely flat today, however in to that bump you can clearly see a negative divegrence in the Carry trade, not good as the Index futures follow, I'm wondering if we gap down tomorrow a.m., we'll know more when we see futures later tonight.

As for the SPY, as mentioned all day, it's gone from a small maybe 2-day looking pullback from Friday to hitting 10 and 15 min charts pretty hard considering, this is a 10-min leading negative so I'd expect a move at least to the 200-day moving average. In typical market head fake psychology, I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong break through the 200-day moving average, but we still have those 30 min positives so that would form an even stronger head fake move than last week's leading to Thurs/Fri.

The Q's just were non stop negative/distribution all day as you can see, this is why I said I'd take SQQQ just as quick as SPXU.

More in a bit after I get to update and look around.