Monday, February 10, 2014

Market and GLD Update

Interesting that GLD is up as it has been consistently trading opposite of the market and I'm expecting a market move down.

I see a potential GLD trade set up coming around shortly and it's connected to the market update.

 GLD has gapped above a clear range, this in itself sets up a probable head fake move, especially when you consider the expectations for the market as GLD moves opposite the market.

This is GLD's 10 min chart which is negative, I think with a market move lower and hopefully GLD moving a bit higher and above a range that looks to be a head fake move now with this 10 min negative, GLD could be setting up a very low risk short.

 The intraday 2 min chart is in line so it's not out of the question for GLD to move a bit higher setting up a nice position, it's also similar to the market averages intraday right now.

Here's the SPY which is seeing even worse negative divergences, so I'm thinking a move to the downside is still highly probable and a move to the SPX's 200-day is very probable.

 1 min intraday this is the VERY slow underlying action I've been talking about, it's nearly perfectly in line, but that's not where the damage is, that's just a good timing marker for a move on the downside to start when the 1 min goes negative and I think this happens before the close or at least starts.

The 5 min is where the trouble is, this leading negative is part of what we saw late last week, but since...

Even the 10 min chart is now seeing migration of the divergence (stronger distribution).

 Actually the 1 min SPY just started going negative (3C) right now as I'm writing.

The 15 min is just about in line and the 30 min is still positive so the expected trends are still the same, just this short term downside move looks to be more impressive than Friday as soon as it gets started which may force me to consider trading it with some leveraged short ETFs like SPXU, I haven't made that decision yet.

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