GDX, NUGT & DUST

Last Friday I was cleaning up some core positions, this one a long NUGT position that I closed out and replaced it with DUST. I'm not sure that I'll leave this as a core position, but I definitely did not want NUGT any longer. Chances are pretty good that as a core position for the long run I will come back to GDX/NUGT long, but for now, well you know.

Here's today's update, I'll try to get gold in there as well as it did flip its correlation with the SPX 180 degrees, I suspected that this was a temporary interruption based on the market's head fake/short squeeze, but this is one I want to get right.

 GDX (Gold Miners) Daily with stage 4 Decline, Stage 1 Base/accumulation with a very defined base so naturally a Head Fake (@ "HF") in the form of a run on stops is to be expected and the daily divegrence is leading, but only after that head fake run on stops. This is the easiest, quietest way to accumulate in bulk for the pros, no one ever seems to ask, "Who's on the other side of the trade" and they get the shares at a deep discount with plenty of supply so it doesn't raise any alarms, the leading divegrence in the area shows how aggressively they accumulated that stop fishing expedition.

I will almost certainly be back in GDX long, I just don't want to be there right now.

 GDX daily chart with the red trendline representing the stage 1 range and of course the head fake move below. The last couple of days we have an evening star candlestick (bearish reversal pattern) and something very close to a bearish "Hanging Man" reversal today, I'd love to see the volume shoot up today, but it's not essential.

 It's the 60 min chart on a longer term Core position basis that bothers me, otherwise I'd probably have put DUST as a trading position. You can see the large accumulation area at the break below support, but 3C should be in line right now and it's not, it's negative. I don't think this changes GDX as a long term bullish position, but sub-intermediate trend... it raises some concerns.

Near term (this would be under a trading position rather than a core position), GDX's 5 min chart is leading negative so it seems whatever downside move is coming, it's very close.

If you look at the 3x leveraged version of GDX, NUGT, the 5 min chart is exactly the same, this is why I closed the long here Friday and entered DUST. I didn't post them, but the 60 min charts and others in NUGT also match GDX so there's good confirmation.

 DUST, the 3x inverse GDX or opposite of NUGT shows a confirming signal with distribution where GDX/NUGT are leading positive at the stop run, what's concerning immediately is the positive divegrence on this 60 min chart that also confirms both GDX and NUGT in the same timeframe.

 The 30 min chart has very clean signals, in line on the move up to the far left, a negative divegrence/distribution at the red arrow and in line or trend confirmation at the green arrow on the way down, this is the next significant divegrence, positive in white, thus the changes.

DUST 10 min is also positive and especially at the last two days where GDX has two bearish reversal daily candles.

I think DUST or GDX short is probably still a decent , viable position here, for now though I'd consider it more of a trading position until these 60 min divergences clear up and tell us a bit more about what's being planned here, maybe a return to the lows?