Quick Futures Update

USD/JPY is treading water around $102.25.

While the Q's and R2K have been doing their thing, ES (SPX futures) have been more or less treading water as well with a number of small intraday steering divergences, seemingly waiting for NQ (NASDAQ 100 futures) and TF (Russell 2000 futures) to finish up they're projects, which I'd say are just passing out more bags for retail to hold.

Take a look now...

 ES with a number of small intraday "steering" divergences as if it's being held right where it is which is right around its VWAP at $1836.37.

 I had written several times not to expect any accumulation or even in line trend confirmation on a head fake based move, expect distribution, the 15 min ES chart (I wish it were longer) shows that clearly, it's picking up even more so now. This of course represents a longer trend, what I'd call the next trend. Remember that the market is like a pendulum and at a transitional stage you always see volatility increase, as we've seen between stage 2 and stage 3 as well as stage 3 to stage 4.

The point of the head fake which was posted and made clear before we had our first move up is to convince market participants, to change their sentiment, I wonder how many of us remember how bearish sentiment was before this move started, I even wondered what they'd have to do to change it, but as usual, retail is fickle and it doesn't ever take as much as you might expect.

A move down doesn't need any of that at this point, the market will fall of its own weight and the most powerful emotion that moves the market is fear so all that needs to be done is to get a little roll over to take place and fear will do the rest, it's not at all like the most recent move in which sentiment HAS to be shaped.


 This is NQ (NDX futures) today, the initial leading negative is deeper as it too seemed to be in a holding pattern  at the intraday highs waiting on TF (R2K futures).

This is TF intraday, it has clearly transitioned to a sharp leading negative divegrence.

With that, breadth is falling apart as well.

This is the NYSE TICK Index for today and...

My Custom SPY vs. TICK indicator, you see the highs are rolling over and the lows are getting deeper so intraday breadth is falling apart, this is a very useful signal in a flat trading range that looks as if it might roll over, the TICK will give you advance notice.

Now that t seems we have a clearer intraday picture, I'm going to see what's out there in both trading and trend positions.