Trade Ideas: PCLN (Core Short Position).

I like PCLN in the area as a core or trend short position, actually we've waited for quite a while for a large PCLN short, with thw way distribution and price action was going, it looked obvious that PCLN wouldn't be a great short set up until it was above $1100 (not at $100, but above at least $1100).

There may be a little more upside, right now (as was Friday afternoon, my main market upside indicator is AAPL and AAPL alone, everything else looks pretty bad). I think AAPL probably has a couple more days and I imagine the market is not going to fall with AAPL still making upside moves. However PCLN is also right above a significant gap and there are very few gaps left open since the rise of HFT so I doubt PCLN can move too much further. So I'd either take PCLN here understanding that it's better than 50/50 that I'll have to wait at least a day or perhaps more and maybe see a little more upside or take the chance of missing PCLN and try to time the entry better with AAPL's charts.

Here's what we have so far...

First compare these two charts and the change in character in their price action (These are both 5-day charts)...

 Note the natural flow of price action, a couple of significant pullbacks and then price getting more and parabolic until it's "straight line vertical", remember we often see these ROC price change in character right before a top or decline.

 Now compare to this one...



The first one is AAPL at it's final top, the second one is PCLN as of right now, they are very similar and again, this parabolic price action is very similar to what we see at the end of the trend.

 At the break above $1100 we have a range with 5 points of contact, this is normal for a consolidation and then a breakout. The breakout is very similar to the market move based around the head fake move.

 The 4- hour chart shows distribution as we approached $1100 and continue above $1100.

The 60 min chart shows thew same

 The 15 min chart has more detail, A is the $1100 mark and the distribution in to that area, "B" is the distribution at $100, "C" is the accumulation that started in the broader market on Jan. 27th through Feb. 6th, "D" is the relative negative divegrence between pre-$1100 and accumulation/pre-bounce with the broader market and "E" is the distribution specific to the asset since the 1/27 through 2-6 accumulation and price rally.

The 10 min chart shows distribution, even more above $1200 which is almost exactly on par with the broader market accumulation from Jan 27th. and the resulting price move.

 PCLN 5 miin shows distribution at the current gap, I have a feeling this may be an exhaustion gap.

And the trend of the 3 min chart shows the 1/27-2/6 accumulation and resulting move up in to distribution. I think this is in pretty good shape short term to start or add to a PCLN core or trend short position.

I'll post AAPL shortly as well/.