USD/JPY

ES and the USD/JPY held their correlation overnight and on the break of $102, apparently on Ukraine tensions. The USD/JPY carry is so close to the $102 level ($102.09-broken below this week's earlier defensive line of $102.20), I'm wondering if the market is just afraid to push too much further in case $102 is broken again, the market action is very dull which ALWAYS makes me very nervous.

USD/JPY 1 mi chart including overnight to present (red and green bars) vs ES (purple line). The correlation has been tight as it normally is and ES has tried to push off, but doesn't seem to want to move too far away from a USD/JPY that is so close to such a significant level.

For all that we are watching so closely, don't forget about where the probabilities are or the big picture.

SPY 60 min in a fairly mature reversal process (rounding top), which always seem to be bigger as tops than bottom reversal processes.