After watching the Alamo last night, thinking about the commanding officers telling their troops to hold (hold their fire until the enemy is in range), it seems pretty appropriate right now for the market.
The SPY is deteriorating faster than I expected with a 10 min leading negative that is impressive, that gets me excited, but it's about the whole picture and while I think this is the kind of deterioration that leads to a volatile move down and there are quite a few positions I'd like to put out there, something tells me, "It's still early, this can deteriorate quite a bit more, let it do its thing", so that word, "Hold" seems appropriate.
I'm going to be off radar for 30 mins or so as I look through different assets that look interesting, Financials are one that look interesting (short), there's a very parabolic move up which is a 2-day breakout of a 3 week trading range, that's the obvious kind of range that makes for a good head fake and an effective one. At the same time the intraday charts are deteriorating pretty quickly, but as I look at a 30 min chart of an asset like FAZ, I think, "This can put in a little more lateral time" or base forming/reversal process which should only help its divergences. Certain assets that I may look at as better options plays might be entered earlier as the asset seems to move against the intended option position, but that's just because I see a good set up and the move against the intended position usually sees the premium discounted and makes for a better entry, stocks/equities aren't quite the same.
I'll of course update anything that may pop up as I'm going through my watchlist, but I'd like to get through it and see just exactly which assets look to be willing to give the most bang for the buck and have to most timely and efficient set ups.
Bottom line, the distribution signals that started on 1 min charts yesterday and got worse as the day went on through migration of the divergence are now even worse, a 10-min leading negative SPY was not what I saw yesterday afternoon, not to this extent; it has added about 3x more than all of yesterday leading negative just over the last 3 hours.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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