Market Update

The Cycle is ending, the last mini cycle we spotted on Friday the 14th taking shape, that ran through last week, but was part of the larger Jan/Feb rally cycle, it's almost like a fuse blowing some structure that's holding the bigger rock (market) up. It's not the price action that causes me to say this, although that's nice confirmation of the shift in sentiment, it's the 3C action.

I opened XLF puts Friday (April $24) and will leave those in place, I think we get another shot to open/add positions, that's why I said be patient and don't chase, I think we'll see some of those opportunities as early as today, but this is also why we have been setting up larger positions the last several weeks.

As for this morning, VXX is what it was all about (VIX futures specifically) and they're are doing as they should be, HYG continues to get hammered by distribution so it's days as a lever from the Feb cycle and even the mini cycle are done.

Still we should get a bounce in the area as there are a lot of support zones broken and retail shorts chasing price, they'll almost certainly be shaken out and that's where we make our move.

 Last week's deterioration of the mini cycle spotted on Friday the 14th for last week, note intraday 3C is almost in line with price, I suspect we will start to move more sideways and work on a bounce, other than the 3C signal, I'll show you why. Be patient.

This is the mini cycle from the 14th in SPY and the deterioration is sharp at the top, you see what I mean about this was not a price head fake move, this was about the VIX futures?

Here's the Jan accumulation, larger Feb rally cycle and it's on the edge of a cliff right now so good timing, good to be in position in large part already.

 As for the new XLF Put, it should bounce and shakeout new shorts on this little H&S shaped top, I didn't verify volume as to a true H&S, but it doesn't matter at this point.

The new shorts and them getting shaken out is what matters. I doubt very much I'll move that XLF put from Friday even on a shakeout, I'll likely add to it at the right time.

And the larger XLF picture, there's trouble there in what was a leader.

As far as the mini cycle, this is what it was about, accumulating protection via VIX Futures on the new contract and there it is, so this is what we expected and were looking for, Again though, I'd stay patient, let the game come to you on your terms, we pick where we want to fight and when.