Monday, March 24, 2014

Market Update

Earlier I said if the SPY pulls back I'll likely add to the weekly calls (in my normal use of options, 2-3x longer than I think I need, that would mean about a 1-day move in the market).

As far as accumulation intraday, EXCEPTIONALLY WEAK. If I were judging by the Q's or Russell 2000 alone, I wouldn't have dared enter a weekly call. Judging by the SPY, it's hard to justify entering anything BUT a weekly call, a monthly doesn't seem to offer the profit potential that a weeekly does, in other words, what we are seeing today, although expected after the initial sell-off, is still very weak.

There's a pullback in 3C and the averages, this may be where I decide to add to the SPY position, I "may" also take gains in assets like Friday's XLF puts if there's better reason to do so and re-enter them at more favorable prices, we're not there yet.

 This is about the extent of any accumulation, a 2 min chart leading which may look impressive, but it's really not that much.

Intraday we see the 1 min negative in to the late afternoon, this may create the pullback or lower low that I mentioned in considering adding to the SPY weekly call position as well as potentially taking some put gains off the table.

I suspect that this will pullback and add a bit more as it was a fairly small area, but it needs to be watched as a 1-2 min divergence only can often be just enough to support a consolidation such as we have seen today and can sometimes not mean anything beyond holding the market in that consolidation until the 1-2 min fail.

And as you can see, there's nothing beyond 3 mins and this is as good as it gets, the Q's and IWM are much worse looking.

We do have additional divergences in individual assets, gold, GDX, etc so I think there's some movement, it may be just enough to hit BTC stops on new shorts entering this morning.


No comments: