Friday, March 28, 2014

MCP Update

I know there's a lot of excitement about MCP because I probably get more emails about this one than any other and I understand why, with a large stage 1 base with a 3C chart like this...

MCP 60 min, I don't want to miss this either , although we've had plenty of decent little trades here.

 With this descending triangle I asked the question earlier this week, "What is most probable?" and a lot of you knew a head fake move below support. Once we had that in place, I asked again yesterday, "What's most probable?"

And that's a reversal process. I can't give you a formula for what "Proportional" looks like, but to me, this isn't a proportional reversal process, I drew in a wider base in yellow and a guestimate of price, making a "W" that makes a lower low than the low of the 27th as we get head fakes on all timeframes before a reversal, to me... that's more reasonable.

So unless 3C charts were flying, I'm inclined to be patient even with a hammer in place on the daily, it's missing the volume though.

The 15 min chart since the move below support is in line, to me this needs to go positive.

There was some positive work accomplished today, the problem is it is off that same small 1-day 5 min positive yesterday that was market wide, even though the closing chart today looks better than most so I'd give this one the nod on the day, but I wouldn't jump in with both feet and if not with both feet, why jump in at all?

When looking at intraday action, this is what I call, "Scribble", there's no real trend there and as a short term timing chart, I didn't feel any pressure to open a long position here.

Patience...

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