Sunday Night Open

As of the 3C indications the last two hours of Friday after the op-ex pin was lifted, I suspected we'd see another pump and dump which seems to be an algo program that is working for now and as long as it works, they'll keep running it.

Friday in the closing post I wrote,

"...my first inclination is another PUMP and DUMP Monday morning."


So far opening prices for the Index futures are higher, here's ES (SPX E- mini futures) ...

ES 1 min chart Sunday opening gap higher.

There's a 1 min negative 3C divergence, but I don't trust the 1 min charts to hold up overnight, still the point is a pump and dump seems to be the most likely outcome for early action tomorrow morning.

ALSO HIGHER... Remember our UGLD (3x long gold) position and GDX / NUGT (3x long gold miners)?

Gold has also opened higher in initial opening trade. We also opened an XLE April $90 Put and guess what, CL (Brent Crude Futures) are trading lower.

 YG (gold futures) higher in opening trade for the new week, again we have a min negative 3C divergence, but I also don't trust these to hold up overnight.

The more important 30 min chart has a very nice positive leading divergence.

 YG 30 min 3C leading positive.

Here are Brent Crude futures and as you can see they have been on a downward trajectory since late last week, thus the XLE Put position, even though oil is only 1 component of "Energy".

All of the carry pairs opened a bit higher, some look better than others, AUD/JPY looks better on a 3C chart, USD/JPY is about in line, but the 1 min EUR/JPY looks a bit weaker than the others, in fact quite a bit, but again it's only a 1 min chart at this point.

I suspect this week we will finish the work started Friday with HYG still getting torn up with distribution and VXX FINALLY putting in those flying divergences, something I've been waiting for about 3 weeks now, perhaps a bit more... this is important because VIX futures need to pull back to be accumulated and once they are, they can break out to the upside giving us a clean timing indication for a move down in the market, but not just a pullback... Since early February we expected the Feb. rally and the next trend we expected  was an even bigger Primary downtrend and a lower low that at least hits the SPX's 200-day (at the time), I suspect lower now.

 HYG distribution

VXX accumulation.


I expect this trend to continue and build until VXX looks like it's about to bust at the seems which can happen very quickly as we saw Friday, that should be a good marker for a market pivot to the downside.

I'll see you ion a few hours. Have a great week.