Overnight Chinese trade data is just getting worse and worse, exports down -6.6 y.o.y. vs consensus of a +4.8% gain, imports down -11.3% vs consensus of a 3.9% gain so obviously I'm liking that with the FXP long position.
As for Initial Claims this morning, they came in at the lowest print since May 2007 which does not bode well for the QE-Bulls or "Un-Taper" crowd, but it does seem goal-sought and works well for the F_E_D if indeed those dots were more accurate than Yellen's comments and the Qualitative guidance just makes all of it easier to justify. Neither the retail QE-loving crowd or the professional rate-consumed crowd like this print.
As for the charts, it's pretty simple this morning, it's why I opened the IWM Put (April $115) yesterday Trade Idea... IWM Fade Trade
What matters from here is whether these start accumulating on the way down, if so then the "W" base is VERY likely, if not then this was a 1 hit wonder, but I think it will because of the USD/JPY signals which I'll show you in the next post.
As far as Index Futures, I felt good about the IWM Put as they looked like this
I do suspect though that these will start to find some support based on the earlier in the week theory based on the USD/JPY, it has done exactly what we expected it to do.
I'll have those charts out shortly.
For now I'm just going to manage the IWM put and look for any signs of accumulation on the downside of short term price action, but that's not likely to start for at least a few hours if not longer.
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