Thursday, April 10, 2014

IWM Put Management

Yesterday's IWM April (monthly) $115 IWM put was for this move, I didn't go with a longer expiration because I was looking to capture the initial momentum which means I want to get out before that fades, so far so good, but there are a couple of things you may want to watch if you are in the position which is doing VERY well right now.

 So far intraday charts are leading negative, that's worse than just in line. However, this move is getting parabolic and you know I never trust parabolic moves for long. We may get a bounce and another chance to set up another put, but the parabolic nature is something I take seriously.


Also watch the NYSE TICK Index (1 min), I drew a channel, you want to watch for any change in character or slowing in the ROC of the decline.

I personally want to get out before we start moving sideways.

IF you went with a leveraged ETF or IWM short, then I'm not so worried about getting out like I am with options, in fact as long as the other charts stay where we want them and I'll update that, I'd probably keep a SRTY or 2x leveraged IWM short ETF open, probably right down to the "W" support target around $112 and then there's the probability of at least a head fake below that support target.

Once again, we need to watch for any accumulation as it nears that area, otherwise we may be looking at a smaller base that has already fired , this is the reason I stayed leaning largely short and only played some smaller option trades on the smaller moves.

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