GLD / GDX / NUGT /DUST

Last Tuesday (April 8th) I closed the UGLD (3x leveraged long gold) and NUGT (3x leveraged long gold miners), partly because I saw them as underperforming based on signals and partly to create some dry-powder for other positions such as last week's call and put that were both in the mid to high double digit returns.

I took a quick look at GLD, GDX, NUGT and DUST today and I don't find them to be in a particularly interesting area in which I might consider re-opening any of them.

Lets start with GLD as it moved the most since then, GDX barely moved at all.

 GLD 1 min intraday doesn't look good on this gap up, plus the market has been diligent about filling gaps since HFTs entered it which is a shame because gaps with candlestick charting were some of the best indications of true support and resistance.

 GLD 3 min chart isn't exactly inspiring as far as a long or even holding it as a long, at the same time I'm not particularly impressed with it as a potential short either, remember Im still expecting more of a counter trend bounce and then a deep pullback in gold and GDX to a lesser extent.

 GLD 5 min shows a rounding base of some size and this is why I think it has what it takes to make a decent counter trend rally since the pullback from mid-March.

GLD 10 min chart, so while that base is still sitting there, it's hard to justify a short position here, especially on gap filling, but while there are negative divergences on 5 and 10 min charts as well as shorter timeframes, it also doesn't make much sense as a long.


GDX-Gold Miners

 The 10 min GDX chart is similar to GLD's

The shorter term like 3 min is also similar, so I don't really see a reasonable trade here with high probabilities and low risk, especially since GDX has barely moved since it was closed last Tuesday.

NUGT 3x long Gold Miners

 With GDX not looking that impressive for a trade, there doesn't seem to be much use in looking at the 3x leveraged long version of it, NUGT, but sometimes the leveraged ETFs will show signals earlier than the underlying so I checked them anyway, as you can see the 3 min chart of NUGT is in line with GDX and therefore nothing new.

DUST- 3x Short Gold Miners...

 So if there's no interesting signals in GDX long, how about short? I checked DUST, there is a positive on a 1 min chart...

However my minimum divergence for a trade would have to reach at least the 5 min chart and DUST doesn't do that.

In other words, the "dead money" look GDX/GLD had about them last week (thus part of the reason they were closed) still persists, I just don't see an edge here worth the risk yet, although I suspect we will see one soon and I'll be setting alerts in GLD for a pullback, likely GDX as well, mostly around gaps that are below current prices.