Thursday, April 3, 2014

GLD/UGLD/GDX/NUGT Follow Up

I have open longs in UGLD (3x long Gold) and NUGT (3x long Gold Miners). Yesterday I posted GLD / NUGT and said...

"Just a quick note, despite the gap in NUGT and GLD/UGLD (as the market has been ruthlessly filling gaps the last 4-5 years), I have NO intention of letting go of either long position.

If I had calls on GDX with a gain, I'd probably take them and look for a new entry, as far as calls on GDX still in the red, so long as the calls are at least out to April (standard), I have no problem holding them.

NUGT is up 9.34% today, UGLD is up +2.26% thus far."

So we knew yesterday that a move down today and gap fill was very high probability, but also something that didn't concern me at all, unless it was an options position, I'd rather just wait it out than incur transaction costs trading around it.

So how do things look today that NUGT filled the gap and UGLD came darn close (-2.323% and 1.16% respectively)? Not bad...

As far as having very little concern about the two positions which I believe are both going to be putting in upside counter trend rallies (some of my favorite as they are strong and move fast)...

 UGLD stage 3 and 4 with 3C confirmation and stage 1 base for a CT rally on a 30 min chart, that's a strong chart/signal, it's not going to fall apart over a gap fill.

NUGT stage 3 and 4 with 3C confirmation of stage 4 and in to a stage 1 base & leading positive on a 60 min chart. Again, hardly the stuff of concern with a gap fill.

As far as what has transpired today...

There were a lot of moves in strong timeframes intraday that I wouldn't normally expect, especially in GLD/UGLD.

 GLD 30 min leading intraday

UGLD 30 min leading positive intraday

GDX with a nice looking reversal process, 5 min leading intraday.

Oddly the intraday to intermediate charts seem to favor GDX/NUGT a bit more than GLD/UGLD, I'm glad I'm already in because calling a specific entry today would be difficult, perhaps if you are interested in a position in either one we'll have a clearer picture of intraday timeframes for timing tomorrow, but as far as everything else, I have no worries or concerns about holding these here, they haven't even begun a counter trend rally and as I said, they are impressive and are often quite a bit longer than a swing trade.

GLD/UGLD intraday charts...
 GLD 2 min was leading earlier and toward the EOD kind of looks like it's not quite done consolidating, GLD did not make a complete gap fill, not that I think that this is imperative, but it may explain some of the relative performance /3C differences.




 GLD 3 min leading positive so the 2 min relative negative at the EOD didn't make it as far as the 3 min chart which either means it is not that strong and may only lead to a little pullback or it's not done with this particular divergence yet.

For me the outcome is the same, I'd still hold, it's just a matter of entries for add-to or new positions.

GDX/NUGT intraday
 3 min NUGT chart just flying, this is good to see, a constructive pullback.

GDX 5 min has the same character, you can already see the difference in underlying trade between Gold and Miners favoring miners on an intraday basis.

All in all, for me there's not much to do other than be patient, for anyone interested in a new or add-to position I'll monitor both for such an opportunity, but I'd guess we will be well on our way higher by early next week at the latest.

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